[image:1,s]
SNBDL Daily Briefing
Report prepared using big data solution Quid
Our take from the last 72 hours news
Central banks news:
As expected, the ECB announced yesterday, Sunday, the result of the Asset Quality Review (AQR), it first stress test since the central bank took over as the Single Supervisor of the banking system. Over 130 banks have been tested, 25 failed showing EUR 25bn capital gap. The results show that the AQR was credible and the capital needs are manageable. The failing banks are exactly those which are known for the last decade to have: business model issues, cost structure problem, asset quality weaknesses due to the lack of margins. We are not surprised that the fragmented Italian banking sector was the most hurt by the exercice. We are not surprised either by the fact that Austria Hypo and French CRH were amongst the failing banks.
Some “newspaper”, largely supporting the populists parties and definitely anti-EU, have been criticising that ECB has not genuinely run a deflation – all doom – scenario. This scenario has not been run by the Fed in 2009 because of the usual negative self-fulfilling prophecy which take place when Deflation scenario are run trough any banking stress test.
To conclude, as we were expecting the AQR is credible and manageable. The stress test is likely to open opportunities for banks to reengage in lending to benefit from the tool available (T-LTRO and QE ABS and Corporate Bonds). Unlike the consensus, our view is that AQR and reforms currently introduced, or which have been introduced, will help EZ economy to growth again. We were supporting to Draghi-nomics, AQR results validated this scenario.
FOMC will meet Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on whether end the QE program or delay this to November or December. The consensus see the Fed ending the QE as soon as Wednesday. We are less confident and we see 55% chances the FED postpone the end of QE. Our view is built on 3 elements: 1) inflation continue to be lagging behind with some preferred inflation expectation measures (such as inflation break-even) are dangerously edging downward, 2) FOMC members have been answering critics which may arise from postponing ending QE, such as QE helps increase inequalities and asset frothiness, President Bullard helped to open this discussion earlier last week, 3) U.S. is heading toward a midterm election which is seen to give the Senate majority to the GOP – an outcome which could increase the risk of gridlocks and endless debates about should the U.S. default to break Obama presidency -. To these three factors, one could end less important but still worrying risks such as the Ebola outbreak, the low growth and low inflation in other part of the world. We understand that conservative commentators, who are not happy with the recent development of oil prices (as it destroy the wealth of donors), are pushing the Fed to take actions which may create a renewed economic and financial crash. Indeed, in such a case, some financial institutions could criticise regulation and reduce the on-going pressure to make financial groups accountable. Being unbiased vis-a-vis oil prices (as we’ve called before all other sell-side economists the current trend) we see the benefit of a plummeting oil prices on consumer spending and on the delay of any inflation risk. We agree however that in the Luxury sector we continue to witness some inflation. We would be surprised if the Fed took a hawkish tone just to avoid inflation to increase for Luxury good while threatening the public with deflation.
Economics News:
Some have been surprised by the fact that the UK growth is not as “exciting” than what nearly 90% of the consensus economist have been “imagining”. From an investor prospective, I am deeply disappointed by how incompetent or ideologically biased sell-side economist have been this year. We have indicated in our previous comment the ideological calculus. We would consider that it’s too much stretched to consider 90% of the consensus is smart enough to make such a complicated calculus. We are disappointed by XX Century economists incompetence because should anyone have listen to them and be short fixed income as they were advising, one would have lost client performance (some hedge funds are today suffering from their lack of analysis, work and from listening to incompetent economists). As a saver, I do believe that these economists have failed the trust test and some actions should be taken. When a worker is incompetent, capitalism finds it natural for the corporation to fire him/her. The same should apply to economist. There are sufficient data and proof for this incompetence which I have been pointing out since February 2014.
China continues to strengthen its soft power trough Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which is seen to chalenge the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. China actions are in line with the country aim to use its infrastructure know how financed by the forthcoming internationalised RMB.
Ebola: A new case in NY, while the US introduced systematic screening of visitors from 3 Ebola nations. Over the nearly 500 tests conducts one case has been taken to hospital. The CDC has required to check health development of the visitors during the 21 days after their arrival. Such a tracking will reduce even further the risk of an outbreak. Should any of the visitors experience health deterioration, the CDC could be quick in responding and in putting in quarantine the possible people infected. We do believe that the mistakes made in Dallas, and the increase of fear consecutive to these mistakes, have pushed the administration to take the necessary steps.
We are likely to see some reduction in the fear as the number of cases decreases. However, outbreak take place in waves. While we might have very good news during the coming 2 weeks, the cases are likely to increase again. There is no time to reduce vigilance until the virus is getting controlled and Ebola vaccines would have proven their effectiveness. WHO sees a new treatment in the coming 2 weeks.
But the GOP continue to point to more measures such as Visa ban. But while Visa ban, alike travel ban, serves interests which want to inflict more pain to the economy (less trade, more pressure on an already fragile airline industry) it does not help reduce the outbreak.
In our special note on Ebola (Ebola a communication war) we stressed that Ebola virus will be more about communication issues than a medical problem. On one hand, we pointed to the excessive fear spurred by politically motivated participants on Twitter. On the other, we stressed that while spreading fear about Ebola could help short term interest groups such as increasing financial markets volatility which could help put the blame on excessive regulation. It does show how the Tea Party caucus and less moderate GOP are unprepared to take over the executive branch. If I was advising Marco Rubio or Rand Paul, I would have advised them to fire their communication and strategic teams. Why? For one simple reason, by emphasising the mistrust, both the two Senators are showing how unprepared, un-experienced they are to pretend running for office in 2016.
1. Would anyone trust a leader who will start trashing all the administration and pushing the public to panic while they have to be focus finding solutions?
2. Would anyone trust Marco Rubio, who continue to fight a XVI Century war against Science, to take the right decision while over sighting CDC operations?
3. Would anyone trust Sen. Rand Paul to be the leader to calm the public when he was indicating that Ebola could be airborne (NB: this is not the case please see our report)?
Should the Senate goes to the GOP, it would be the first time in my 20 years career analysing politics that I would have seen a group wining on the ground that : 1) they will spur fear instead of calming public nervousness and show they would be working, 2) they will trigger an economic crisis because they might be some highly hypothetical fear that Chair Yellen will be behind the curve, 3) they might call for President impeachment trial when the country is leading a coalition against terrorists (inc. ISIL). Will the US public prefer voting to help some private interests which have invested ~$1bn in ads? I doubt. I continue to believe that Tocqueville is right: the US is the best democracy invented so far.
The arrival of Ron Klain as a coordinator of the US administration efforts is likely to lead to a reduction in the excessive fear we have reached last week. WHO announcements, that some western african countries are free from Ebola and that a Vaccine trial should start as soon as December 2014 (a month earlier than previously expected), are contributing to overcome the outbreak.
Gaza:
The more the international community moves toward a two-states solutions peace negotiation, the more Muslim Brotherhoods intensify the pressure to avoid a peace which could cost the movement all the political capital it still have. Northern Sinai terrorist plot which killed 30 Egyptian troops on Friday, making it the deadliest single attack in decades on the military. Egypt has been struggling to stem a wave of violence by Islamic extremists since the overthrow of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. As indicated by Secretary of State Kerry, a genuine peace between Israel and Palestine could resonate into the region and reduce Muslim Brotherhoods political appeal. Although the weekend came with another unfortunate dead in the Palestinian side, which, unless Israel Defence Forces accept a transparent investigation, will be used as a way to spur more mistrust in Israel.
But, the global community should separate between terrorist who’s sole aim is to derail any peace process (Turkeys usually don’t vote for Christmas) and the overwhelming palestinians which have been suffering for too long and deserve an opportunity for peace. This is not a hope it’s a forecast. The global community understand very well that it has no chance to ultimately defeat ISIL if it does not solve the issues which are used by terrorists to hire jihadists. At the top of these issues the palestinian situation.
In addition to UN Secretary General, China, US and EU calls for peace process to reopen, Russia has provided it support. We want to highlight that Russia enjoys a very strong support in the muslim world because it has been seen as the opponents to the U.S. which support Israel. This time we see that Russia support aims pursuing the current status quo, in order to continue to support the geopolitical risk in oil prices. It’s obviously in Russia interest to push oil prices higher and any genuine peace could take some additional dollars out of oil prices which are already depressed.
We have been expressing worries after the decision to reconstruct Gaza because there is a genuine lack of traceability of funding. Hamas confirmed that some funds are redirected to re-militarize. This is in line with the fact that as Hamas is losing its political capital to Fatah of President Abbas. The organisation announcement is a gesture to regain some of its “lieutenants” defecting to other “hard liner” organisations.
We have been saying for some time that a fight against terrorism and radical Islam required to genuinely rebuild trust which would phrase in 3 steps. First, reopen Palestine Israel peace process. Second, sell the narrative that this process is intend to be a win-win scenario (i.e. peace, jobs, and growth for the 2 countries). Third, reduce the speed of Jihadists hiring because those are getting radicalised by the feeling of “injustice” and a perceived war against palestinian and muslims in general.
Recent Secretary of State Kerry comments that a Palestinian – Israel two-state solutions will help derail ISIL are in line with the convictions we expressed since the start of Gaza war and the “fight for talents” terrorists organisation have been organising. Please see our comments on Iraq & Syria will indicate that the terrorists are loosing battle in the ground but want to keep their narrative alive in order to keep hiring (when the western countries are just realising that defeating ISIL will require defeating its hiring process).
Iraq & Syria: Canada parliament shooting was confirmed to be an isolated act of IS terrorists. This indicates that ISIL risk is much important and the global coalition response is still inadequate. The coalition has focused on the urgency: stoping ISIL from spreading in Middle East. But the coalition should be held accountable for its continuing lack of response to the more important reason behind the jihadists hiring: MISTRUST. We are puzzled by how media is giving airtime to ISIL by spreading videos, messages and communiques while moderate muslims have no voice (even when US President made reference to #NotInMyName community in his UN General Assembly speech). From a game theory prospective, we understand very well the reasons behind giving airtime to murders. By spurring the fear, some interests groups could imagine that they can derail the current trends toward good governance. In 2009, we were indicating : to solve today’s problems (financial, economic, ecological crisis), there is no way but improving governance. These interests groups will be defeated not because Terrorism is bad, but because terrorism and ISIL is an unstable equilibrium. Some are justifying this situation because it serves as a wake up call to move forward. We believe that the time has came to accelerate the G-20 initiatives and get rid of bad governance, because terrorism needs “dark” money to flourish and anyone who is link to these channels should be brought to justice.
Last week we were saying that, as soon as Turkey will have assurances that the Kurds will not use the current tension at Kobane to increase the tension over the Kurdish independence, ISIL is loosing this symbolic battle. We were indicating that Kobane is a must win for ISIL in order to pursue their “marketing campaign” borrowed from Spartacus and David & Goliath.
During the recent days, ISIL was loosing ground in Kobane and diverting its to-become-jihadists attention to Baghdad, Raqa / Anbar province to show how barbaric ISIL can be. These actions intend to keep the “to-become-Jihadists” (like Australian Abdullah Emir – click here-) attention on joining their fight. We have been witnessing that many non-affiliated groups have pledge allegiance to ISIL in order to keep hiring. We have seen for example that Algeria salafists groups have renamed themselves to “Califat fighters” to channel funding, weapons, supports etc. We would not be surprised if ISIL continues to spur disinformation that they can take their fight to the sky or that the have got access to US arms (as indicated by the US thanks message channeled by some extremists twitters.
By winning the communication war and cutting ISIL from attracting young fighters the coalition increases its chances to ultimately defeat ISIL.
We would like to remain our readers that ISIL is three groups: 1) psychopaths – drug addicted fighters who are leading the fight because their illness have reduced their fear of death, 2) Some sunni army groups which have been betrayed by Al-Maliki government (these include Ba’aht party), 3) Some sunni tribes. The “non-psychopaths” are using ISIL as a threat to push the global community to pressure Iraqi government to be more genuinely inclusive and reduce bad governance. Reports over the nomination of the new government interior minister are one of the numerous example of the aftermath of Al-Maliki legacy.
We would not be surprised that Iraqi army would spur the information that they would be helping ISIL to take it fight to the sky, but let’s face facts, unless ISIL gets some government support, it’s very difficult to imagine how ISIL could have any chances vis-a-vis US and coalition airforces. As we were expecting, new intelligence indicate that ISIL have the ability to use Chlorine bombs.
IHS confirmed the estimates we had that ISIL was making ~$2millions per day from oil, before US Strikes. Recent reports, unconfirmed by Turkey, indicate that the oil transactions were going through Turkey. We would not be surprised because Muslim Brotherhood a radical political islam group have left Qatar to Turkey. These groups might be of help. Furthermore “money laundering” and terrorism financing is usually much easier in countries which lack high standards in term of governance. We do believe that the more data on this issues will be leaked the more the pressure on President Ergodan will intensify to find a solution to the Muslim Brotherhood ideology and to improve governance.
Two factors are important to watch in the coming days: 1) how President Ergodan will change his position when the situation deteriorates, 2) how the coalition will withstand two events (Iran nuclear negotiation and Saudi decision to let Oil prices stabilise at 70-80$). On the first topic, President Erdogan seems to be willing to provide help – sufficient help to keep ISIL away from Turkey where Muslim Brotherhood are reallocating after being “asked to leave” by Qatar. Second, the coalition is strong and seems to have accepted low oil prices.
Russia – Ukraine tension take away:
Pro-EU struck a historical win in Sunday 26th general elections. This is in line with our scenario for the development of the current tension between Ukraine and Russia. While we see this results as been positive for the fight against bad governance and corruption and increase the likelihood for Ukraine to move closer to EU, we consider that Russia is likely to escalade.
Chancellor Merkel attitude is in line with our view that she is using Putin threat to push EU to undertake more reforms and more integration, while keeping the threat of Russia isolation very high. Meanwhile, Russia economy continues to tank.
We would like to remain our reader that when it comes to whether Russia will cut gas delivery to Europe, we believe that it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”. Our study of Putin chess game enables us to see that a moment where fear over Ebola will reach the level where any non-lethal flu could become a source of panic and paranoia , would be the genuine timing for cutting gas. This will help populists (supported by Putin) to criticise Europe even more.
Actually, many other political groups are using the strategy of making allegiance to Putin in order to push some domestically driven agenda.
Reports out of Sweden relative to underwater activities indicate that Sweden is shifting away from its “neutral” stands and is heading to put some additional pressure on Putin. Should Sweden change stands as the recent evidence are starting to show, Ukraine tension might increase because it will leave President Putin without any example of neutrality Ukraine should be bind by.
Comments by Swedish PM Lofven “[Sweden] have already say [it] will stay out of NATO” hint that the recent events are bringing the question back to the table (at least from the Russian prospective). The recent “tension” over military planes violating Estonia air space is another example of the fact that the situation is unlikely to settle before the beginning of next year.
Finally, U.S. is intensifying the pressure on Iran to move ahead with a deal, at a moment when Iranian media reported the dead of Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, the head of Iran’s top clerical body after lying in a coma for months, leaving a gap in the only institution that has the authority to elect and dismiss the country’s Supreme Leader. This does not create any short term change in the negotiation but it’s closing the window of opportunity for striking a deal. The fight between “hard-liners” and “conservatism” (supporters of Hassan Rohani) is likely to intensify going into 2016 election.
We continue to see only two possible outcomes: 1) Russia pursue its aggressive attitude and pushed for a separation of Ukraine at the expense of a full-fledge isolation, or 2) Russia opposition start to “challenge” President Putin to return to reforms. The second outcome is unlikely for now because intelligence from the ground is indicating that while the opposition is willing to change the trend, there is a serious lack of appetite to challenge President Putin be in openly or behind the scenes.
We foresee the situation to continue to deteriorate while Oil prices continue to plummet. Russian economy is likely to suffer a lot, while EU narrative is likely to change because the “communication war” which have been spurred by Russia and its supporters in the Western political groups is loosing traction.
Hong Kong take away:
Hong Kong protests talks with HK’s government failed while violence coming from opponents to Umbrella Revolution increased. We believe that the situation is likely to continue to ebb and flow between some “tension” and discussions with HK government. The IV-Plenum communique indicated, as we were expecting, that the Chinese government is moving ahead with an agenda which should please the Occupy movement in Hong Kong as well as in other countries: 1) improve governance, 2) crack down on Corruption, 3) introduction of the rule of law and 4) independence of justice. These steps are likely to help President Xi government to start finding a way out of the current “crisis”. While we consider the reforms path is pointing to the right direction, we consider that China can accelerate because the new normal is getting understood by the public, the business community though the financial markets are still lagging behind. President Xi might use HK as a platform for political reform experiment. In nutshell, we see Occupy and Umbrella Revolution to be a green shot toward helping government understand that accountability, democracy, and the rule of law need to be strengthened and that there is no other ways but political reforms.
Catalonia: referendum called off, Rajoy opened discussion to give more autonomy to Catalonia, Russia’s RT News is pressing Catalonian to revolt. We were expecting it and we add Catalonia to the numerous subjects were big data has proven its accuracy. However, any delay in negotiation between Catalonia and Madrid could reverse the tied. Unfortunately, many politicians have been used to procrastination and may try to promise reforms without delivering them. This time Spain has to face the reality: all over the world, the public awareness of “moral faults” has increased. Not solving Catalonia problem is giving more argument to the mistrust camp. It suffices that one sees the overwhelming indication that mistrust helps to radicalise the public, to conclude that procrastination would be responsible for public radicalisation. The Elite in Spain does not understand that the old days of the Spanish Monarchy without accountability is ending. They’re better get used to that and move forward. King Felipe-IV said last Friday « These feelings rooted and shared from North to South and from East to West in our territory, we should never forget them, much less lose them, » when addressing the annual Prince of Asturias Awards 2014. « On the contrary, we have to preserve and nurture them, » he added.
We were saying “calls for independence referendum is increasing pressure on both Madrid and EU to move forward to offer better conditions and better narrative to the public. We see PM Rajoy taking constitutional actions to deter Catalonia from conducting the referendum, at a moment where more the referendum is gaining support from the independence forces all over the world. Madrid may accept to open discussion to devote additional autonomy to Catalonia in order to reduce the pressure. This story is likely to push EUR existential threat higher short term, but we consider that EUR is likely to rebound by the end of this year, when these threats will be repriced as less likely.” (daily briefing Sept. 30 2014). Catalonia decision to suspend formal campaign is the first step in our constructive scenario. However, Artur Mas uses the threat of going ahead with the referendum, though the constitutional court has specified that’s un-constitutional. This threat is urging PM Rajoy to act which he did in Saturday by opening discussion of some kind of PM Cameron solution to Scotland independence call (i.e. more fiscal autonomy). Catalonia government will decide by October 15 on whether to hold referendum. We see the most likely scenario to be some deal with Madrid which would : 1) help Artur Mas to claim victory – he would have secured more autonomy – and 2) help PM Rajoy to de-escalade the tension over Catalonia. We see the next region to start a fight for more autonomy to be Bavaria (Germany’s most wealthy region which is pushing Alternative fur Deutschland – AfD – anti-EZ party wants to reduce its contribution to other regions – “lazy” EZ members states, in their parlance -. Business interest (Football Clubs) are starting to indicate the cost of a secession. Novo-Russia continue to support Catalonia, as a secession could help justify Crimea. Many have been talking about war in the East, the War against Russia is also taking place in Catalonia. The relations between populists parties in EU and Russia speaks volume. Czar Putin should make no mistake EU is one and indivisible. Populism is a cancer, EU is recovering from it.
Ferguson – Missouri: One word take Replace Catalonia, HK Occupy with Ferguson, keep calm and carry on.
A source told CBS News that Attorney General Eric Holder is « exasperated » by what he called « selective leaks » in the case. These selective leaks have increased the tension in Ferguson – Missouri as the protestors see in the leaks a gesture to skew the Grand Jury decision in this rather politically charged case.
In order to reduce the tension, an independent commission will be created to study issues that have surfaced since the fatal police shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon said Tuesday. This commission aims de-escalating a situation which could easy surge. The risk of surging is increasing as a newly leaked autopsy of Michael Brown, the unarmed 18-year-old black man shot by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri more than two months ago, indicates a gunshot wound to the hand from close range, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported.
The Tea Party caucus is using these events as a way to increase the racial tension, while Sen. Rand Paul wants to use the spread of African-American anger vis-a-vis President Obama administration as a way to bring these voters to the GOP. Sen. Rand Paul has used exactly the same strategy with the youth, which suffers the most from the global financial crisis consequences. The administration needs to increase it rhetoric against disinformation, mistrust and pessimism should it want to avoid that the voters turn to those who are placing the most emphasis on pessimism with the help of donors which interest is to keep status quo (at a moment when the US need urgently to undertake structural reforms – immigration, taxes etc. -). Furthermore, not only Tea Party caucus is using this strategy, the moderate Chris Christie whom have suffered from the Bridge scandal, is using the same strategy to change his image.
In general, Ferguson, HK Occupy, Scotland Independence, Catalonia share the same problem: inequality. Many are considering that Inequality will bring a class struggle and some kind of XIX century like revolution. Notwithstanding that depending on where someone seats, we might think that these mass protests (1000 for Ferguson, much more in Catalonia) are sufficient to start a revolution. But like we were saying in our earlier notes, we genuinely believe that Occupy and Anonymous groups have been hijacked by “commodity interest groups” (it suffice to look at the links between investment portfolio’s advise of those groups – Gold and Commodities – and the consequence of a derailed soft power to move toward better governance).
However, unlike in the old “organised revolutions” in LatAM, this time around the social media is in charge and the overwhelming majority wants to use soft power – and Ferguson is part of that – to press institutions to reforms. The chaos and Apocalypses imagined by the 3G group (the most radical group within libertarians and their name stands for Gold, Guns and God) are unlikely to take place. Of course Ebola, and ISIL are genuine threats but 1) the on-going improvement in governance (cf. Australia G-20), 2) the work to reduce disinformation and skepticism (EU, Gaza), 3) military and medical action against the two deadly diseases ISIL and Ebola, are supportive to the positive scenario. Furthermore, there is a win-win scenario which is taking place and which could help: workers, shareholders and consumer to benefit from.
US midterms elections:
November 4th midterm elections is coming with many uncertainties. Should GOP win the Senate, the US administration is likely to find itself stuck with a divided government which could make : debt ceiling, budget negotiation, Fed Transparency Bill negotiation, very hard. Some humorists have called the Tea Party caucus to be the “no-negotiators”. Without leaning toward a liberal Tea Party bashing, we would like to remind our readers of October 2013 debt ceiling talk. These period have created too much fear that the US might default that some Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have been considering challenging the USD reserve currency privilege status. The average polls are giving 55% chance to the GOP to secure a win in the Senate. However, these polls do not track the weak signals narrative nor participation variable (a model we’ve built for Scotland Independence and which has proven a very good results). Koch donors story (politico here) is very interesting because it shows that Oil interest groups are busy trying to reduce the speed at which their wealth is evaporating. $1bn is the amount invested, hope that this investment does not include any link to gestures to destabilise the Homeland security. We are confident that private initiative such as Super Pac of Super Pacs (using public donation to cut interest groups campaign financing) would take over in the short term because Pension Funds and Investors will soon recognise that “Greed is NOT good” and better have a functioning democracy.
We continue to side with the consensus. But we consider that as soon as investors will start looking at the consequence of a GOP Senate majority win we might see some change in the dynamics. We have the opportunity to use a new source of big data information. We will be using it to bring the change in the narrative in the coming 3 weeks. Stay tuned and thanks for your support.
The recent polls which show a GOP turnout advantage, should be taken with a pinch of salt. The reason is that turnout is a very volatile variable and depend on the consequence of not showing in the polls. Countries differ in their reaction function to election. As a general view, the more a country struggles to get rights the more the public is fearing the return of any dark days and go to the polls. The more the media will focus on the fact that GOP are winning (with the consecutive effects) the more the voters might increase their turnout. We believe that this “reversibility of votes” is the “magic” bullet which might help save some efficacy for the second half of President Obama tenure as well as avoid an incredible economic headwinds (see here Ted Cruz agenda for GOP Senate). Should one add Senator Ted Cruz comments, those of Senator Rand Paul (which spur fear about Ebola), we might find ourselves in situation which would have many similarities to Nero burning Rome (click here).
These are the reasons why we are less confident than many commentators in the US that GOP Senate majority is a given. The fear mongering is likely to play against GOP because it’s a sign of irresponsibility that a to-become-a-leader would cry to the wolf instead of tackling issues. Actually, GOP has tried to use the big data approach which helped Barack Obama to win twice the presidency. Unfortunately for the GOP the most social media active conservative are all from the tea party, Gold bugs ideological views. These are incapable of thinking of a negotiation because their aim is to destroy State. In that sense, we feel that they are very close to ISIL thinking.
US other news: Oil prices have reached our second target $80 much quickly than anticipated. However, we consider that they’ll plateau in the short term at these level until Iran nuclear negotiations go through. In the case of success we might see prices resuming their downward trend. U.S. administration just started to take seriously numerous report of ISIL funding through Oil trade. The administration threatened to take sanctions measures against those who buy Oil from ISIL. This may create some tension with Turkey, unless President Erdogan uses this approach to go after Muslim Brotherhood groups.
We have been sharing last week an interesting paper on why ISIS excels at recruiting American teens. This trend is the most worrying while the terrorists propaganda based, on the Apocalypse and the spread view that “institutions are rotten to the core”, is gaining traction is more forums (libertarians blogs for example). I was puzzled by the number of blogs and how some Hedge Funds have been financing libertarians views although they repeat all of them the same information, data, reasoning etc. This become clearer with the recent rush to sell to small investors energy funds, while the overwhelming data and news are supportive to do the opposite. It’s frustrating that the US SEC does not protect sufficiently investors by requiring to check how these funds are sold. From a 20 years marketing experience in finance, I witnessed at least one case over two deals where the investor has not been given the full information although salesmen knew it. In a world where data are everywhere and the tools to make the sense of it are already very efficient and cheap, I do believe that financial institutions have better to be very cautious. As we have been saying many times: last time financial institutions suffers multi-billions sanctions, next time (if these do not take the genuine actions to improve governance and marketing practices) it may end up into jail time. I doubt that oil funds salesmen discussed with their clients the situation in Iran negotiation and how this could take the oil into another plunge.
Informations out of North Korea have proven our thoughts right: Kim Jong Un has personally ordered to free the M. Jowle. This is a weak signal that North Korea leadership is willing to soften its stands when its old partners are moving toward a new strategy. We see this development increasing the chances of a reunification with South Korea. This story should accelerate when President XI and PM Abe will meet and reduce the seemingly tension over the disputed regions.
EU other news: While the EU member states 2015 budget discussion is on-going, EU struck two important deals: 1) European Union leaders agreed early Friday to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the 28-nation bloc to at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 (while before the meeting Chancellor Merkel was indicating that the challenge was great and the negotiation would not be easy), 2) better coordination in the Ebola outbreak front (this is likely to provide the path toward so form of EU – CDC which would have to coordinate efforts -.
We have been indicating that we consider that EZ narrative has shifted to more positive dynamic. Indeed, an European Union accounting change has improved Cyprus’s public-finance outlook more than any other euro-zone nation, raising the prospects it will exit a bailout program ahead of schedule and sell bonds this year.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer is to promise to get up to half a million more women into the workplace as part of a new Conservative push on the economy and to regain women votes which have been defecting to other mainstream parties (Women voters are smart enough to not trust UKIP and populists parties according to polls analysis). PM Cameron at the other side of the spectrum is making “noise” against EU, in order to reduce the haemorrhage of Tories supporters defecting to UKIP. We find this approach dangerous and self-defeating although its the only political game PM Cameron could play at present. Indeed, the more PM Cameron criticised immigration and EU policies the more he increases his chances that the public will see in his the charismatic leader which stands out and secured a deal against EU bureaucrats. But while we believe that the negotiation has already taken place and the PM is trying to flex mussels to keep his political base, we consider that the negative rhetoric vis-a-vis immigrant coming from EU is dangerous because it could spur a reversal in the trend which started since Fmr. PM Margaret Thatcher. At that time, Britain was considered to be “eldorado” for Italian, Spaniards, French and Eastern European alike which re-allocate in Britain to create businesses, work and make a leaving. By criticising these “migrants” – some of them are british citizens now -, which have enriched Britain culture as well as its GDP, PM Cameron is threatening to reverse the flow of migration, while many Eurozone countries are genuinely embracing structural reforms and lacking stamina of the immigrant to create jobs, businesses and growth. We are surprised that PM Cameron does not out speak about oligarchs migration which have not brought only “clean” money and which, as it did in the south of France, have financed populist groups to hit EU hard when Russia is struggling geopolitically.
China: Home prices fall for the fifth month in September. This confirms our view of the curent dynamics on hold in China: resilient labor market and export demand are helping the world’s second-largest economy weather a housing market downturn. At the same time, SOE (state own enterprises) have been suffering from: lower profits and investments.
This is in line with the rebalancing objective to move away from the old growth drivers and focus on economic reforms. News out of the corporate sector shows that even in this field China is delivering the reforms announced (shift toward “Social Capitalism” model).
As the economy continue to soft land, we see the Chinese leadership continuing to support governance improvement and crack down on corruption. For example, Australian police have agreed to assist China in the extradition and seizure of assets of corrupt Chinese officials who have fled with hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit funds, the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper reported (see more below).
We believe that Chinese leadership will continue to drive the growth lower but smoothly to avoid triggering a hard landing chock. We see any stimuli to be small and targeted because the government continues to fear that the economic rebalancing has not taken momentum yet although 1) labor intensive manufacturers are relocating in cheaper labor countries, 2) businesses are upgrading their business models [while becoming environmental friendly], 3) President Xi has conducted many trade – investment agreement with Neighbours (after Premier Li did the same in Africa) to secure investment projects which use Chinese manpower – engineers know-how in this domaine, 4) China is gaining more military presence and has fluxed it mussels – e.g. China “Top Gun” intercept by a US fighter jet -, 5) China has signed many RMB agreement which reinforce the currency usage and prepare its full liberalisation – after Free Trade Zones (FTZ) have proven to be a success -, 6) China has undertaken a genuine fight against bad governance and better regulation – many examples in our recent daily briefings of fight against corruption and bad governance-.
While the recent decisions strengthen President Xi power, we foresee the first objective of the Chinese President to be rebalancing the Chinese economy while cooling the pressure which have developed in China (banking, housing etc.).
Australia: As we were expecting, Australia CPI remains low and enables RBA to stay put (due to the fear of a housing bubble, which the central bank is dealing with through macro prudential tools). However, Australia continues to be seen, by markets, as a derivative to the old Chinese model (i.e. commodity provider). This view explains the high beta between Australian assets and commodity prices (or China demand for commodities). Banks shares are suffering from the combination of the increase perception of increase in risks and additional macro prudential constants to curb housing prices frothiness. Small business defined the “goldilock range” for AUDUSD to be [.90-.94]. This level is much higher than RBA own assessment (based on PPP models). We have been criticising PPP models because they do not factor any structural changes.
These assume that neither China nor Australia are conducting their rebalancing agenda. We do believe that the current weaknesses offers genuine opportunity to benefit from the other drivers to the Australian economy which are not related to commodities. We see the current Australian Dollar weakness to continue at least until the USD start to weaken again when markets will realise that it has beaten too much on a quick rate normalisation. Meanwhile, from our previous daily briefing, we have gathered sufficient support to the view that the drivers of the Australian GDP are moving toward: 1) education, health and finance services provider to Asian neighbours, 2) innovation and digital sector, 3) energy resources export to Japan (the later contributes to our constructive view that the current negative Japan Energy Trade deficit will rebalance in the medium term – reducing Japanese Government bonds solvency risk – ).
Japan: Although two cabinet ministers resign over scandals, creating more questions about Abenomics, we do not see this derailing PM Abe objectives. Recent decision to crack down on tax dodgers is another piece of evidence that Japan is heading toward reforms and improving governance. Furthermore, as Japan trade deficit deteriorate (cf. our comments on this in Economics news) increase the pressure to reform.
Japan warned on Friday that a volcano in southern Japan located roughly 64 km (40 miles) from a nuclear plant was showing signs of increased activity that could possibly lead to a small-scale eruption and warned people to stay away from the summit. This signs are increasing the pressure on the PM Abe administration to consider all routes which could help bring down Japan energy trade deficit without counting too much on reopening of the nuclear plants. These measures include Trade Partnership which could secure Japan energy, but at the other hand Japan has to agree to changes in behaviour requested by the Green party in Australia which would be instrumental to clear the TPP. We consider that accepting a much tough regulation on Whales hinting or presenting apology for “confort women” is an acceptable price to pay to secure the Japanese economy from sovereign solvency risk.
North Korea decision to free Jeffrey Fowle, a US Citizen, is a positive indication that the relations with NK are improving in what we see as first genuine steps toward a reunification solution which would involve China, South Korea and Japan. We see the next China – Japan summit (discussed by FinMin Aso in Finance APEC Summit) as instrumental for reducing the tension between the two countries and to move ahead with reunification talks.
Central banks News
Central banks news:
As expected, the ECB announced yesterday, Sunday, the result of the Asset Quality Review (AQR), it first stress test since the central bank took over as the Single Supervisor of the banking system. Over 130 banks have been tested, 25 failed showing EUR 25bn capital gap. The results show that the AQR was credible and the capital needs are manageable. The failing banks are exactly those which are known for the last decade to have: business model issues, cost structure problem, asset quality weaknesses due to the lack of margins. We are not surprised that the fragmented Italian banking sector was the most hurt by the exercice. We are not surprised either by the fact that Austria Hypo and French CRH were amongst the failing banks.
Some “newspaper”, largely supporting the populists parties and definitely anti-EU, have been criticising that ECB has not genuinely run a deflation – all doom – scenario. This scenario has not been run by the Fed in 2009 because of the usual negative self-fulfilling prophecy which take place when Deflation scenario are run trough any banking stress test.
To conclude, as we were expecting the AQR is credible and manageable. The stress test is likely to open opportunities for banks to reengage in lending to benefit from the tool available (T-LTRO and QE ABS and Corporate Bonds). Unlike the consensus, our view is that AQR and reforms currently introduced, or which have been introduced, will help EZ economy to growth again. We were supporting to Draghi-nomics, AQR results validated this scenario.
FOMC will meet Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on whether end the QE program or delay this to November or December. The consensus see the Fed ending the QE as soon as Wednesday. We are less confident and we see 55% chances the FED postpone the end of QE. Our view is built on 3 elements: 1) inflation continue to be lagging behind with some preferred inflation expectation measures (such as inflation break-even) are dangerously edging downward, 2) FOMC members have been answering critics which may arise from postponing ending QE, such as QE helps increase inequalities and asset frothiness, President Bullard helped to open this discussion earlier last week, 3) U.S. is heading toward a midterm election which is seen to give the Senate majority to the GOP – an outcome which could increase the risk of gridlocks and endless debates about should the U.S. default to break Obama presidency -. To these three factors, one could end less important but still worrying risks such as the Ebola outbreak, the low growth and low inflation in other part of the world. We understand that conservative commentators, who are not happy with the recent development of oil prices (as it destroy the wealth of donors), are pushing the Fed to take actions which may create a renewed economic and financial crash. Indeed, in such a case, some financial institutions could criticise regulation and reduce the on-going pressure to make financial groups accountable. Being unbiased vis-a-vis oil prices (as we’ve called before all other sell-side economists the current trend) we see the benefit of a plummeting oil prices on consumer spending and on the delay of any inflation risk. We agree however that in the Luxury sector we continue to witness some inflation. We would be surprised if the Fed took a hawkish tone just to avoid inflation to increase for Luxury good while threatening the public with deflation.
ECB Fails 25 Banks in Test as Capital Hole Lurks in Italy
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) — Twenty-five lenders including Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA failed a stress test led by the European Central Bank, which found the biggest capital hole in the region’s banking system in Italy.
The Frankfurt-based institution identified a total gap of 25 billion euros ($32 billion) as of the end of 2013, most of which has now been raised by banks. Among lenders still in need of funds, Italy’s Monte Paschi and Banca Carige SpA must find a combined 2.9 billion euros between them, the ECB said today.
“The capital shortfall is at the lower end of expectations,” said Jon Peace, a banking analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London. “It was always going to be a challenge for the ECB to convince the market of its credibility if it was going to be a small number which failed and capital to be raised.”
None of Europe’s largest banks found lacking. No French, German or Spanish institutions were required to find more capital. Lenders found to be deficient now have as many as nine months to fill gaps identified by the ECB, which is aiming to close the door on half a decade of financial turmoil in the euro region.
The results, on first impression, are “very positive” and should benefit some bank stocks tomorrow, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note. Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG, Erste Group Bank AG and Greek bank shares are among those which should react positively.
There Is One Huge Thing Missing From The ECB’s Stress Tests
On Sunday, the European Central Bank released the results of « stress tests » performed on 130 eurozone banks.
Twenty-five banks failed.
There’s a bit of a split on whether or not these results were good.
But there is no divide on whether or not the ECB considered one key scenario: deflation.
Analysts at Societe Generale said the results show that in an adverse scenario that occurs in 2016, only 7 billion euros of capital would be needed. And given that these stress tests involved banks holding more than 20 trillion euros in deposits, they don’t think this is a huge deal. Others aren’t so sure, including economist Philippe Legrain who called the results, « Yet another eurozone bank whitewash. »
In a blog post Legrain, who wrote a book on the eurozone crisis titled, « European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess — and How to Put Them Right, » wrote in a blog post on Sunday that the stress test’s capital need assumptions are « ludicrously overoptimistic. »
But aside from how you choose to argue some of the ECB’s assumptions, the central bank said, point blank, that it did not consider a situation where prices fall across the eurozone.
In a press conference following the results, the ECB’s Vítor Constâncio said, « The scenario of deflation is not there because indeed we don’t consider that deflation is going to happen. »
WRAPUP 3-ECB fails 25 banks in health check but problems largely solved
* 25 of 130 banks fail ECB test but capital hole mostly plugged
* ECB’s Constancio says results could help bank lending
* Italy in spotlight after nine of its banks fail
FRANKFURT, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Roughly one in five of the euro zone’s top lenders failed landmark health checks at the end of last year but most have since repaired their finances, the European Central Bank said on Sunday.
Painting a brighter picture than had been expected, the ECB found the biggest problems in Italy, Cyprus and Greece but concluded that banks’ capital holes had since chiefly been plugged, leaving only a modest 10 billion euros to be raised.
Italy faces the biggest challenge with nine of its banks falling short and two still needing to raise funds.
The test, designed to mark a clean start before the ECB takes on supervision of the banks next month, said Monte dei Paschi had the largest capital hole to fill at 2.1 billion euros.
The exercise provides the clearest picture yet of the health of the euro zone’s banks more than seven years after the eruption of a financial crisis that almost bankrupted a handful of countries and threatened to fracture the currency bloc.
Federal Reserve to take away the punch bowl
LONDON (Reuters) – Unless it springs a major surprise, the U.S. Federal Reserve will call time this week on its program of government bond purchases, which at one point was pumping $85 billion a month into financial markets and the economy.
James Bullard, who heads the St. Louis Fed, has suggested that sticking with bond purchases for a few more months would give policymakers time to assess a deteriorating inflation outlook.
That helped markets to calm from a violent sell-off 10 days ago but economists expect the Fed to turn off its money taps on schedule on Wednesday, while giving accompanying assurances that it will respond if a global downturn threatens its economy.
« We remain optimistic that the recent upshift from 2 percent to 3 percent growth will be sustained, » economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.
It may well be that the Fed keeps U.S. interest rates virtually at zero for longer given tumbling energy prices and an absence of wage growth. Investors have already pushed expectations for an initial rate rise back several months to late next year.
End of Fed bond buying may nudge mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve this week is expected to remove one of the two crutches supporting the economy since the 2008 financial crisis, ending bond purchases that have held down long-term interest rates.
The anticipated decision to halt so-called quantitative easing at a two-day Fed meeting that begins Tuesday marks a milestone in the recovery. But it’s drawing little fanfare and economists expect minimal effect on financial markets, though it could push up mortgage rates slightly.
That’s because Fed policymakers have been signaling the decision for months and winding down the bond-buying, begun in late 2012. And the strengthening economy is largely being driven by other forces.
« This has all been fully telegraphed, » says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics, noting the move is priced into bonds.
Greece’s Bonds Rise With Portugal on ECB Bets Before Stress Test
Greek bonds rose this week with their Portuguese counterparts as speculation that the European Central Bank will extend stimulus to include purchases of corporate debt fueled demand for higher-yielding assets.
German government bonds fell, ending a five-week gain that was driven by concern the euro-area economy was headed for another recession. Greek 10-year (GDBR10) securities had their first weekly advance since early September. Prudential Financial Inc. held on to its Greek debt due in five years or less even as the nation’s securities in the previous week fell the most in a year, saying the market may have priced in most of Greece’s bad news.
There’s no specific plan to buy corporate bonds, ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene said this week in an interview with L’Echo newspaper. The central bank in Frankfurt publishes results of its yearlong examination of euro-area lenders tomorrow.
Ruble Weakens to Record on S&P Downgrade Concern as Crude Falls
The ruble fell to a record as oil declined and concern Standard & Poor’s will cut the country’s credit rating to junk curbed appetite for Russian assets.
The ruble weakened beyond 47 versus the Bank of Russia’s target dollar-euro basket for the first time and traded down 0.6 percent at 46.9921 by 6 p.m. in Moscow, after Ksenia Yudaeva, the first deputy central bank governor, told Bloomberg plans to free-float the currency next year remained intact. The Micex Index pared its weekly drop to 0.7 percent.
Russia’s central bank has spent more than $17 billion in October to slow the steepest currency retreat in the world in the last three months after U.S. and European Union sanctions over Ukraine triggered a dollar shortage and oil slipped to a four-year low. S&P is due to announce its decision on Russia’s credit score today, a week after Moody’s Investors Service cut the sovereign one level to its second-lowest investment grade, citing concern the sanctions will hurt the economy.
Economics News
Economics News:
Some have been surprised by the fact that the UK growth is not as “exciting” than what nearly 90% of the consensus economist have been “imagining”. From an investor prospective, I am deeply disappointed by how incompetent or ideologically biased sell-side economist have been this year. We have indicated in our previous comment the ideological calculus. We would consider that it’s too much stretched to consider 90% of the consensus is smart enough to make such a complicated calculus. We are disappointed by XX Century economists incompetence because should anyone have listen to them and be short fixed income as they were advising, one would have lost client performance (some hedge funds are today suffering from their lack of analysis, work and from listening to incompetent economists). As a saver, I do believe that these economists have failed the trust test and some actions should be taken. When a worker is incompetent, capitalism finds it natural for the corporation to fire him/her. The same should apply to economist. There are sufficient data and proof for this incompetence which I have been pointing out since February 2014.
China continues to strengthen its soft power trough Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which is seen to chalenge the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. China actions are in line with the country aim to use its infrastructure know how financed by the forthcoming internationalised RMB.
Rapid UK recovery starts to slow from previous red-hot pace
(Reuters) – Britain still looks on track to outpace other advanced economies this year after rapid growth eased only slightly in the three months to September, but a euro zone slowdown could hamper the recovery in the run-up to next May’s election.
Official data on Friday showed the economy expanded by 0.7 percent in the third quarter, compared with 0.9 percent the quarter before – in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll.
While the pace of growth was still above Britain’s long-run average, the upturn slowed in the service industries that dominate the economy, and manufacturing output rose at its weakest pace in 18 months.
Few economists expected Britain’s previous quarterly economic growth rate – one of the highest in almost a decade – would be sustained.
But the slowdown will do nothing to alleviate concern that the euro zone’s economic malaise may take a greater toll before May’s national election, when the government’s economic legacy after years of austerity will take centre stage.
‘We won’t pay,’ furious Cameron tells EU over surprise bill
(Reuters) – In a vivid display of fury at European Union technocrats, British Prime Minister David Cameron refused to pay a surprise 2.1-billion-euro bill on Friday as EU leaders ordered an urgent review of the calculations used.
Eurosceptics at home branded the EU a « thirsty vampire » for seeking an additional, immediate sum worth a seventh of London’s annual payment following a major statistical review of national incomes. Cameron demanded action from fellow leaders at a summit, calling the sudden bill « completely unacceptable ».
He found some sympathy. Cameron told reporters Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi lambasted « bureaucrats without a heart », who made it harder to fend off the attacks of Eurosceptics.
Three major nations absent as China launches World Bank rival in Asia
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Australia, Indonesia and South Korea skipped the launch of a China-backed Asian infrastructure bank on Friday as the United States said it had concerns about the new rival to Western-dominated multilateral lenders.
China’s $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is seen as a challenge to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, both of which count Washington and its allies as their biggest financial backers.
China, which is keen to extend its influence and soft power in the region, has limited voting rights in these existing banks despite being the world’s second-largest economy.
The AIIB, launched in Beijing at a ceremony attended by Chinese finance minister Lou Jiwei and delegates from 21 countries including India, Thailand and Malaysia, aims to give project loans to developing nations. China is set to be its largest shareholder with a stake of up to 50 percent.
Indonesia was not present and neither were South Korea and Australia, according to a pool report.
South Korea Economic Growth Picks Up as Consumption Rebounds
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) — South Korea’s growth picked up last quarter on public spending and revived consumption, a boost to President Park Geun Hye as policy makers try to spur the economy with fiscal and monetary stimulus.
Gross domestic product rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, the Bank of Korea said today in Seoul, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, the economy expanded 3.2 percent.
A decline in facilities investment and exports showed the challenges to a rebound from a slump earlier this year following a deadly ferry accident. Park’s government added spending and eased property market rules to boost demand and the Bank of Korea’s has cut its interest rate twice since August to a four- year low, taking advantage of slack inflation to spur recovery.
“Economic growth may fall short of the BOK’s forecasts,” Yoon Yeo Sam, a Seoul-based fixed-income analyst at Daewoo Securities Co, said after the data release. “Policy makers may have to come up with more fiscal and monetary pushes.”
The Kospi stock index was down 0.2 percent at 10:03 a.m. in Seoul, with the won 0.5 percent weaker at 1,061.13 per dollar.
Finance Minister Choi Kyung Hwan pledged in July to use 31 trillion won ($29 billion) of stimulus this year and proposed a record 376 trillion won budget for next year.
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju Yeol, in a meeting with CEOs of big companies in Seoul today, urged them to step up investment.
Dollar Pares Gain Before Fed on New York Ebola Case
The dollar pared its first weekly gain in three weeks against a basket of peers on concern the spread of the Ebola virus may weigh on the economy before the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.
The yen halted a six-day drop against the dollar after a doctor tested positive for the disease in New York, boosting haven demand. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped from almost its highest in more than two weeks as the Fed prepares to meet Oct. 28-29. The euro rallied as a draft report indicated four of five euro-area banks are set to pass a European Central Bank stress test. Brazil’s real soared.
“Every new shock creates a panic for a few days and then it subsides,” Greg Anderson, head of global foreign-exchange strategy in New York at Bank of Montreal, said in a phone interview. “I don’t expect to see a lot further dollar appreciation this year, but I think this is a real good sign of what’s going to happen next year — a major dollar rally, reminiscent of the late 90s.”
Earnings News
Earnings news: earnings continue to help calming the excessive markets’ nervousness that corporations profit margins will be unsustainable and will push stocks prices into a depressed territories.
The Earning season just started by the overall view is not as “depressing” as many have been painting for months (we have disagreed with this view at many occasions). Except some important misses due to idiosyncratic reasons, the profit margins still look healthy.
But the corporations continue to see “challenging” top line. In fact the “balance sheet deleveraging” dynamics continue to be at play. In a nutshell, corporation anticipates less top line growth, they protect their margins, using tax initiatives, financial engineering (such as buy-backs) or rationalise their staff. This dynamic is usually used by some populists groups to point to the class-struggle between Rich (shareholders) and Poor (workers). But there is an untold story, which explains that even with the very high level of inequalities, there is a very low probability for a XIX Century style revolution *though many would love to see it to challenge the current governance improvement trend*. The untold story is that among people leaving big corporation, there is an overwhelming number of entrepreneurs, innovators and good professionals which have reached the level of intolerance vis-a-vis some crony capitalism phenomenon. This is what we like to call “Stalinism Capitalism”: it works like capitalism for large shareholders and management while its Stalinism for workers, small shareholders (including Pension Funds). Should big corporation move away from Stalinism Capitalism, a trend which is already in place, we would with more than 75% probability: 1) improve profit margins, 2) improve workers pay and conditions, 3) improve gender equality – which empowers workers -, 4) improve consumer services. This trend is a certainty because political activism has been focusing on criticising states actions, it has just get organised to challenge private sector bad behaviour. Furthermore, G-20 in Australia is likely to press government to move toward good governance.
We would like to take the opportunity here to repeat that this trend toward the good governance is in place and supported by many policymakers (China, Australia, France etc.). But, reports on bad governance practices overshadow the changes. But we continue to see a need to accelerate the change in governance in other to regain the public trust (the most important “asset” of the XXI Century).
US STOCK MARKET HAS BEST WEEK IN NEARLY 2 YEARS
NEW YORK (AP) — The stock market closed out its best week in nearly two years on a positive note Friday, helped by strong quarterly earnings from Microsoft and other big U.S. companies.
After weeks of speculation over the fate of Europe’s economy, Ebola fears and plunging oil prices, investors were able to get back to basics. Wall Street is in the midst of one of the busiest times of the year, when companies report their quarterly results. Ultimately what drives stock prices higher is the potential for a company to earn more, so higher profits generally mean higher stock prices.
« What matters most to the market are earnings expectations and corporate fundamentals, and so far they’re looking pretty good, » said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
Profits for S&P 500 companies are up 5.6 percent from a year ago this earnings season, according to FactSet. That growth is better than the 4.6 percent increase the market was expecting.
Quarterly results from Microsoft and UPS helped lift stocks Friday, but there have been other strong reports this week. Caterpillar, 3M, Apple and others have all came in well above expectations.
Microsoft’s sales and profits were well above analysts’ expectations. Cloud services, a business the company has focused on, also grew. Microsoft rose $1.11, or 2.5 percent, to $46.13.
Volvo Jumps as Cost Cuts Widened, Adjusted Earnings Gain
Volvo AB (VOLVB) jumped the most in more than four years in Stockholm trading as the Swedish truckmaker increased a cost-reduction target by 54 percent and reported growth in adjusted earnings on a North American demand surge.
Volvo rose as much as 14 percent, the steepest intraday increase since April 2010, and was trading up 10 percent at 85.8 kronor at 10:21 a.m. That propelled the stock to a 1.6 percent gain this year, valuing the company at 183.1 billion kronor ($25.2 billion).
Spending cuts by 2015 will be lifted to a total 10 billion kronor as the manufacturer intensifies cutbacks at the construction-equipment division and reorganizes the truck-sales operation and reviews information-technology systems, Gothenburg-based Volvo said in a statement today. Excluding the costs of restructuring that’s already under way, third-quarter operating income rose 16 percent.
Chief Executive Officer Olof Persson has a target to make Volvo the most profitable heavy-truck maker by realigning production of the European Volvo and Renault brands, cutting overhead costs and expanding overseas. In contrast to a drop in third-quarter truck orders at Daimler AG, the world’s biggest maker of the vehicles, Volvo’s advance sales rose in the period.
Ebola
Ebola: A new case in NY, while the US introduced systematic screening of visitors from 3 Ebola nations. Over the nearly 500 tests conducts one case has been taken to hospital. The CDC has required to check health development of the visitors during the 21 days after their arrival. Such a tracking will reduce even further the risk of an outbreak. Should any of the visitors experience health deterioration, the CDC could be quick in responding and in putting in quarantine the possible people infected. We do believe that the mistakes made in Dallas, and the increase of fear consecutive to these mistakes, have pushed the administration to take the necessary steps.
We are likely to see some reduction in the fear as the number of cases decreases. However, outbreak take place in waves. While we might have very good news during the coming 2 weeks, the cases are likely to increase again. There is no time to reduce vigilance until the virus is getting controlled and Ebola vaccines would have proven their effectiveness. WHO sees a new treatment in the coming 2 weeks.
But the GOP continue to point to more measures such as Visa ban. But while Visa ban, alike travel ban, serves interests which want to inflict more pain to the economy (less trade, more pressure on an already fragile airline industry) it does not help reduce the outbreak.
In our special note on Ebola (Ebola a communication war) we stressed that Ebola virus will be more about communication issues than a medical problem. On one hand, we pointed to the excessive fear spurred by politically motivated participants on Twitter. On the other, we stressed that while spreading fear about Ebola could help short term interest groups such as increasing financial markets volatility which could help put the blame on excessive regulation. It does show how the Tea Party caucus and less moderate GOP are unprepared to take over the executive branch. If I was advising Marco Rubio or Rand Paul, I would have advised them to fire their communication and strategic teams. Why? For one simple reason, by emphasising the mistrust, both the two Senators are showing how unprepared, un-experienced they are to pretend running for office in 2016.
- Would anyone trust a leader who will start trashing all the administration and pushing the public to panic while they have to be focus finding solutions?
- Would anyone trust Marco Rubio, who continue to fight a XVI Century war against Science, to take the right decision while over sighting CDC operations?
- Would anyone trust Sen. Rand Paul to be the leader to calm the public when he was indicating that Ebola could be airborne (NB: this is not the case please see our report)?
Should the Senate goes to the GOP, it would be the first time in my 20 years career analysing politics that I would have seen a group wining on the ground that : 1) they will spur fear instead of calming public nervousness and show they would be working, 2) they will trigger an economic crisis because they might be some highly hypothetical fear that Chair Yellen will be behind the curve, 3) they might call for President impeachment trial when the country is leading a coalition against terrorists (inc. ISIL). Will the US public prefer voting to help some private interests which have invested ~$1bn in ads? I doubt. I continue to believe that Tocqueville is right: the US is the best democracy invented so far.
The arrival of Ron Klain as a coordinator of the US administration efforts is likely to lead to a reduction in the excessive fear we have reached last week. WHO announcements, that some western african countries are free from Ebola and that a Vaccine trial should start as soon as December 2014 (a month earlier than previously expected), are contributing to overcome the outbreak.
Two U.S. states to quarantine health workers returning from Ebola zones
(Reuters) – New York and New Jersey will automatically quarantine medical workers returning from Ebola-hit West African countries and the U.S. government is considering the same step after a doctor who treated patients in Guinea came back infected, officials said on Friday.
The steps announced by the two states, which go beyond the current restrictions being imposed by President Barack Obama’s administration on travelers from Liberia, Sierra Leone or Guinea, came as medical detectives tried to retrace the steps in New York City of Dr. Craig Spencer, who tested positive for Ebola on Thursday.
The new policy applies to medical workers returning from the region through John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York and Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey. In the first instance of the new move, a female healthcare worker who had treated patients in West Africa and arrived at the Newark, New Jersey, airport was ordered into quarantine.
U.S. envoy in West Africa to see how world failing in Ebola fight
(Reuters) – The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, arrived in Guinea’s capital Conakry on Sunday on a mission to see first hand how the global response is failing to stop the deadly spread of Ebola in West Africa.
Power, who will also visit Sierra Leone and Liberia, said
she hopes to gain a better understanding of what resources are missing so she can push other countries to offer more help.
The three West African countries are bearing the brunt of the worst outbreak of the hemorrhagic fever on record that the World Health Organization says has killed nearly 5,000 people. A small number of cases have also been reported in Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States.
Kenyan president says country safe from Ebola
KILIFI, Kenya, Oct. 24 (Xinhua) — Kenya President Uhuru Kenyatta on Friday called on tourists to continue visiting the east African nation, which he said is free of Ebola virus that has claimed more than 4,800 lives in West Africa.
Kenyatta assured tourists that his government is capable of controlling the disease in the unfortunate event of a breakout, saying health officials are on high alert over possible outbreak.
« Kenya is safe from Ebola and you should have nothing to fear to come here, » Kenyatta said in the coastal town of Kilifi.
The president’s remarks came after the health ministry announced that it plans to train 30,000 health workers on Ebola screening, prevention, control and case management.
Ministry of Health Director of Medical Services Nicholas Muraguri said that the training is being supported by 150 medical doctors specialized in infectious diseases control positioned across the country.
UPDATE 9-Brent oil ends week flat, pausing rout, as U.S. contango looms
* Middle East crude supply remains strong
* Ample prompt supplies threatened contango in U.S. crude
* New York Ebola case jitters the domestic market (Adds U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission statistics)
By Sam N. Adams
NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) – Brent oil prices fell on Friday but were little changed on the week as traders caught their breath from a months-long rout, even as signs of rising global supply and a U.S. contango structure threatened deeper losses.
U.S. crude oil futures, meanwhile, continued to slide. Contracts for December delivery settled down $1.08 at $81.01 per barrel, dropping $1.74 since last Friday.
Increased domestic crude stores have depressed the price of short-term futures contracts. The spread between December and January contracts narrowed to 24 cents, threatening to flip to a second-month discount, or contango, for the first time since early this year. The spread CL-1=R was at more than 80 cents a few days ago.
EU Boosts Ebola Aid for West Africa to 1.0 Billion Euros
European Union leaders agreed today to boost aid to combat the deadly Ebola virus in west Africa to one billion euros, EU president Herman Van Rompuy said.
« EU will increase financial help to 1.0 billion euros (USD 1.26 billion) to fight Ebola in West Africa, » Van Rompuy tweeted on the second day of an EU leaders’ summit in Brussels.
The 28 member states and the European Commission have already pledged nearly 600 million euros to pay for medical staff and facilities in the worst affected countries – Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, where some 4,900 people have died of the disease.
British Prime Minister David Cameron has led calls to raise 1.0 billion euros, urging his EU peers to match London’s efforts to tame a disease for which there is no vaccine nor cure, only therapeutic treatments.
WHO: NUMBER OF EBOLA-LINKED CASES PASSES 10,000
DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — More than 10,000 people have been infected with Ebola and nearly half of them have died, according to figures released Saturday by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread.
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the largest ever outbreak of the disease with a rapidly rising death toll in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. There have also been cases in three other West African countries, Spain and the United States.
The U.N. health agency said Saturday that the number of confirmed, probable and suspected cases has risen to 10,141. Of those cases, 4,922 people have died. Its figures show about 200 new cases since the last report, four days ago.
Even those grisly tolls are likely an underestimate, WHO has warned, as many people in the hardest hit countries have been unable or too frightened to seek medical care. A shortage of labs capable of handling potentially infected blood samples has also made it difficult to track the outbreak. For example, the latest numbers show no change in Liberia’s case toll, suggesting the numbers may be lagging behind reality.
WHO says Ebola vaccine plans accelerating as trials advance
GENEVA/LONDON (Reuters) – Trials of Ebola vaccines could begin in West Africa in December, a month earlier than expected, and hundreds of thousands of doses should be available for use by the middle of next year, the World Health Organization said on Friday.
Vaccines are being developed and made ready in record time by drugmakers working with regulators, the U.N. health agency said, but questions remain about their safety and efficacy which can only be settled by full clinical trials.
« Vaccine is not a magic bullet, but when ready they may be a good part of the effort to turn the tide against the epidemic, » senior WHO official Marie-Paule Kieny told a news briefing after a meeting in Geneva of industry executives, global health experts, drug regulators and funders.
« We are talking now about starting in December and not January. So this shows again how everything is really pushed forward and the massive effort which is undertaken by everybody to make this happen. »
While financing was discussed, there were no details of specific funding pledges for Ebola vaccines’ development, distribution and deployment.
« There is a broad understanding that money will not be an issue, » said Kieny, the WHO’s assistant director general for health systems and innovation. « And on commitment of vaccine manufacturers, of course there is commitment for affordable prices. »
Gaza
Gaza:
The more the international community moves toward a two-states solutions peace negotiation, the more Muslim Brotherhoods intensify the pressure to avoid a peace which could cost the movement all the political capital it still have. Northern Sinai terrorist plot which killed 30 Egyptian troops on Friday, making it the deadliest single attack in decades on the military. Egypt has been struggling to stem a wave of violence by Islamic extremists since the overthrow of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. As indicated by Secretary of State Kerry, a genuine peace between Israel and Palestine could resonate into the region and reduce Muslim Brotherhoods political appeal. Although the weekend came with another unfortunate dead in the Palestinian side, which, unless Israel Defence Forces accept a transparent investigation, will be used as a way to spur more mistrust in Israel.
But, the global community should separate between terrorist who’s sole aim is to derail any peace process (Turkeys usually don’t vote for Christmas) and the overwhelming palestinians which have been suffering for too long and deserve an opportunity for peace. This is not a hope it’s a forecast. The global community understand very well that it has no chance to ultimately defeat ISIL if it does not solve the issues which are used by terrorists to hire jihadists. At the top of these issues the palestinian situation.
In addition to UN Secretary General, China, US and EU calls for peace process to reopen, Russia has provided it support. We want to highlight that Russia enjoys a very strong support in the muslim world because it has been seen as the opponents to the U.S. which support Israel. This time we see that Russia support aims pursuing the current status quo, in order to continue to support the geopolitical risk in oil prices. It’s obviously in Russia interest to push oil prices higher and any genuine peace could take some additional dollars out of oil prices which are already depressed.
We have been expressing worries after the decision to reconstruct Gaza because there is a genuine lack of traceability of funding. Hamas confirmed that some funds are redirected to re-militarize. This is in line with the fact that as Hamas is losing its political capital to Fatah of President Abbas. The organisation announcement is a gesture to regain some of its “lieutenants” defecting to other “hard liner” organisations.
We have been saying for some time that a fight against terrorism and radical Islam required to genuinely rebuild trust which would phrase in 3 steps. First, reopen Palestine Israel peace process. Second, sell the narrative that this process is intend to be a win-win scenario (i.e. peace, jobs, and growth for the 2 countries). Third, reduce the speed of Jihadists hiring because those are getting radicalised by the feeling of “injustice” and a perceived war against palestinian and muslims in general.
Recent Secretary of State Kerry comments that a Palestinian – Israel two-state solutions will help derail ISIL are in line with the convictions we expressed since the start of Gaza war and the “fight for talents” terrorists organisation have been organising. Please see our comments on Iraq & Syria will indicate that the terrorists are loosing battle in the ground but want to keep their narrative alive in order to keep hiring (when the western countries are just realising that defeating ISIL will require defeating its hiring process).
Palestinian-American teen killed by IDF gunfire during West Bank protest
A Palestinian-American teenager was shot dead by Israeli soldiers, Friday afternoon, during clashes that erupted in a protest held there weekly.
According to the military, the boy, 14, was about to throw a firebomb towards Route 60; an IDF unit positioned nearby opened fire after he had lit the firebomb’s fuse, and was preparing to hurl it. Palestinian officials denied these claims.
A relative identified the teen as Orwa Abd al-Wahhab Hammad and said he was born in New Orleans and came to the West Bank at age six. Hammad’s cousin Moath said he was among a group of Palestinians who were throwing rocks at Israeli soldiers.
An Israeli army spokesman told Reuters Israeli forces « managed to prevent an attack when they encountered a Palestinian man hurling a molotov cocktail at them on the main road next to Silwad. They opened fire and they confirmed a hit. »
The military said it would investigate the shooting, which occurred amid other clashes in Arab areas in and around Jerusalem in which several people were lightly injured.
In Washington, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki called for a « speedy and transparent investigation. »
Palestine Welcomes Russian Initiative to Send Security Council’s Delegation to Region
MOSCOW, October 24 (RIA Novosti) – Palestine welcomes the Russian UN envoy’s initiative opposed by Israel to send the UN Security Council delegation to the region, Palestine’s chief negotiator Saib Arikat told RIA Novosti Friday.
« Russia is an example of compliance with the international law in what concerns Israel-Palestine conflict and creation and maintenance of the principle of two states, » Arikat told RIA Novosti in an interview, noting that the initiative of Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s UN envoy, fully corresponds to international law.
On Tuesday in his address at the UN Security Council meeting Vitaly Churkin called on Security Council to send its mission to Palestine and Israel to facilitate peace settlement.
Chief Palestinian negotiator issues statehood ultimatum
RAMALLAH West Bank (Reuters) – The Palestinians’ chief peace negotiator has laid out in the clearest terms yet plans to establish an independent Palestinian state within three years, even if it means ignoring pleas from the United States not to push ahead.
Expressing deep frustration and a degree of resignation that years of efforts to forge a two-state solution with the Israelis have made next to no progress, Saeb Erekat said there was no option other than to make a unilateral push for statehood.
He said a resolution would be put to the United Nations Security Council next month calling for a November 2017 deadline for the establishment of two states based on the boundaries that existed before the 1967 Middle East war, when Israel occupied the West Bank and Gaza and seized East Jerusalem – the areas the Palestinians want for an independent state.
« The status quo cannot last, » Erekat told members of the foreign press at his offices in Ramallah on Thursday. « We want to establish a state no later than November 2017. That’s it. »
The Palestinian leadership is well aware that the United States will almost certainly veto any such U.N. resolution, although it will first try to convince the Palestinians not to make such a move so that the veto does not have to be used.
Erekat said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry had told him at a conference in Cairo this month that the Security Council was « not an option », but avoided the word veto. The United States is a major source of funding for the Palestinians.
Egypt declares emergency in northern Sinai
EL-ARISH, Egypt (AP) — A coordinated assault on an army checkpoint in the Sinai Peninsula killed 30 Egyptian troops on Friday, making it the deadliest single attack in decades on the military, which has been struggling to stem a wave of violence by Islamic extremists since the overthrow of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi.
Iraq & Syria
Iraq & Syria: Canada parliament shooting was confirmed to be an isolated act of IS terrorists. This indicates that ISIL risk is much important and the global coalition response is still inadequate. The coalition has focused on the urgency: stoping ISIL from spreading in Middle East. But the coalition should be held accountable for its continuing lack of response to the more important reason behind the jihadists hiring: MISTRUST. We are puzzled by how media is giving airtime to ISIL by spreading videos, messages and communiques while moderate muslims have no voice (even when US President made reference to #NotInMyName community in his UN General Assembly speech). From a game theory prospective, we understand very well the reasons behind giving airtime to murders. By spurring the fear, some interests groups could imagine that they can derail the current trends toward good governance. In 2009, we were indicating : to solve today’s problems (financial, economic, ecological crisis), there is no way but improving governance. These interests groups will be defeated not because Terrorism is bad, but because terrorism and ISIL is an unstable equilibrium. Some are justifying this situation because it serves as a wake up call to move forward. We believe that the time has came to accelerate the G-20 initiatives and get rid of bad governance, because terrorism needs “dark” money to flourish and anyone who is link to these channels should be brought to justice.
Last week we were saying that, as soon as Turkey will have assurances that the Kurds will not use the current tension at Kobane to increase the tension over the Kurdish independence, ISIL is loosing this symbolic battle. We were indicating that Kobane is a must win for ISIL in order to pursue their “marketing campaign” borrowed from Spartacus and David & Goliath.
During the recent days, ISIL was loosing ground in Kobane and diverting its to-become-jihadists attention to Baghdad, Raqa / Anbar province to show how barbaric ISIL can be. These actions intend to keep the “to-become-Jihadists” (like Australian Abdullah Emir – click here-) attention on joining their fight. We have been witnessing that many non-affiliated groups have pledge allegiance to ISIL in order to keep hiring. We have seen for example that Algeria salafists groups have renamed themselves to “Califat fighters” to channel funding, weapons, supports etc. We would not be surprised if ISIL continues to spur disinformation that they can take their fight to the sky or that the have got access to US arms (as indicated by the US thanks message channeled by some extremists twitters.
By winning the communication war and cutting ISIL from attracting young fighters the coalition increases its chances to ultimately defeat ISIL.
We would like to remain our readers that ISIL is three groups: 1) psychopaths – drug addicted fighters who are leading the fight because their illness have reduced their fear of death, 2) Some sunni army groups which have been betrayed by Al-Maliki government (these include Ba’aht party), 3) Some sunni tribes. The “non-psychopaths” are using ISIL as a threat to push the global community to pressure Iraqi government to be more genuinely inclusive and reduce bad governance. Reports over the nomination of the new government interior minister are one of the numerous example of the aftermath of Al-Maliki legacy.
We would not be surprised that Iraqi army would spur the information that they would be helping ISIL to take it fight to the sky, but let’s face facts, unless ISIL gets some government support, it’s very difficult to imagine how ISIL could have any chances vis-a-vis US and coalition airforces. As we were expecting, new intelligence indicate that ISIL have the ability to use Chlorine bombs.
IHS confirmed the estimates we had that ISIL was making ~$2millions per day from oil, before US Strikes. Recent reports, unconfirmed by Turkey, indicate that the oil transactions were going through Turkey. We would not be surprised because Muslim Brotherhood a radical political islam group have left Qatar to Turkey. These groups might be of help. Furthermore “money laundering” and terrorism financing is usually much easier in countries which lack high standards in term of governance. We do believe that the more data on this issues will be leaked the more the pressure on President Ergodan will intensify to find a solution to the Muslim Brotherhood ideology and to improve governance.
Two factors are important to watch in the coming days: 1) how President Ergodan will change his position when the situation deteriorates, 2) how the coalition will withstand two events (Iran nuclear negotiation and Saudi decision to let Oil prices stabilise at 70-80$). On the first topic, President Erdogan seems to be willing to provide help – sufficient help to keep ISIL away from Turkey where Muslim Brotherhood are reallocating after being “asked to leave” by Qatar. Second, the coalition is strong and seems to have accepted low oil prices.
Iraqi security forces and Kurds gain ground against Islamic State
(Reuters) – Iraqi government forces and Shi’ite militias seized control of the strategic town of Jurf al-Sakhar near Baghdad from Islamic State on Saturday and Kurdish fighters made gains in the north after heavy coalition air strikes against the Sunni militants.
Iraqi troops and their Shi’ite allies broke the grip of Islamic State in Jurf al-Sakhar after months of fighting against insurgents determined to march on the capital.
« Our forces with the support of the volunteers are in total control over Jurf al-Sakhar now and the terrorists fled to the southwest areas of the town, » a spokesman for security forces there said.
Fighting shakes Lebanon’s north as army battles Islamists for third day
TRIPOLI Lebanon (Reuters) – Lebanese soldiers battled Islamist gunmen across northern Lebanon for a third day on Sunday in the worst fighting linked to the civil war in neighboring Syria since militants briefly seized a border town in the summer.
Four soldiers died in Sunday’s clashes, bringing the total killed to 10 since militants began fighting the army on Friday following an army raid on a militant cell in northern Lebanon.
Seven civilians and about 12 militants have also been killed, security sources say, and dozens wounded. The army has fought street battles in the northern city of Tripoli’s historic Old City and fired on militants from helicopters.
Politicians across Lebanon’s deeply divided political field have condemned the violence, but by late Sunday there was no sign the fighting was coming to a close.
The violence also briefly spread to Arsal, the town on the Syrian frontier in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley where militants fought the Lebanese army over the summer, killing about 20 soldiers before withdrawing with captive soldiers, many of whom are still being held.
Canada Must Understand Terrorist Is Terrorist Anywhere: Law Professor
WASHINGTON, October 24 (RIA Novosti) – Ottawa should review its foreign policy and realize that a terrorist is a terrorist wherever he is, University of Ottawa International Law Professor Jabeur Fathally said.
« Canada must review many aspects of its foreign policy, and must understand that a terrorist is a terrorist wherever he is, in Boston, in Ottawa, or in Damascus in Syria. We should understand that calling the terrorist in Syria as freedom fighters won’t help our safety in Canada. I think that this act has nothing to do with decision of Canada to go to Iraq, as other attack occurred in Canada before this decision, » Fathally told RIA Novosti Thursday.
On Wednesday morning, a soldier was shot and killed by a gunman while guarding the National War Memorial in Ottawa. The shooter then proceeded to Parliament Hill’s Center Block, where he was killed in a shootout with a policeman.
Local media reported that gunshots were also fired Wednesday in the Canadian Parliament building and a mall in downtown Ottawa. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper addressed the public following the incident saying that Canada lacks immunity from terror attacks.
‘Rational fear’ and 5 other key moments from New Hampshire Senate debate
(CNN) — Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen repeatedly accused Republican challenger Scott Brown of « fear-mongering » — on Ebola, ISIS and more — in the second debate of a New Hampshire race that’s key to determining which party will control the Senate.
But Brown shot back that his are « rational fears » shared by a majority of Americans.
The race a dead heat. A CNN/ORC International poll released Thursday found Shaheen with 49 percent support to Brown’s 47 percent — well inside its margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
It could turn on whether Shaheen is able to keep on her side voters who have turned on Obama. His approval rating dropped to 39 percent in New Hampshire — which has driven Brown’s efforts to connect Shaheen with the president.
And that’s what Brown tried to do, using every issue possible — illegal immigration, Ebola, ISIS and Obamacare among them — to try to nationalize the debate.
Militant Group Said to Be Using Chlorine Bombs
New allegations have emerged that Islamic State extremists have expanded their arsenal with chlorine bombs and captured fighter jets — weapons that could help the militants in Iraq and Syria.
Kurdish fighters in the key Syrian border town of Kobani have held off a month-long offensive by the Islamic State group with the help of a U.S.-led campaign of airstrikes.
Turkey’s president said he will allow Syrian rebels to transit through his country to help the town’s beleaguered defenders, but both the Kurds and the rebels denied any such plan was in the works, underscoring differences over strategy that are hindering efforts to roll back the extremists.
In Iraq, officials said Islamic State militants used chlorine gas during fighting with security forces and Shiite militiamen last month north of Baghdad. If the reports are confirmed, it would be the first time the Sunni extremists tried to use chlorine since their seizure of large parts of Syria and northern Iraq earlier this year.
The statements in Iraq came two days after Kurdish officials and doctors said they believed IS militants had released some kind of toxic gas in an eastern district of Kobani. Aysa Abdullah, a senior Kurdish official based in the town, mentioned the attack took place late Tuesday and that some people suffered symptoms that included dizziness and watery eyes. She and other officials said doctors lacked the equipment to establish what kinds of chemicals were used.
ISIS Inc.: US official reveals how terror network makes its millions
Islamic State militants are amassing a fortune through their web of criminal activity, including earning roughly $1 million a day from oil smuggling alone, according to a Treasury Department official who on Thursday provided unprecedented details about the illicit financial network.
David Cohen, who leads the department’s effort to undermine the Islamic State’s finances, described the organization as one of the best-financed terror groups in the world.
« It has amassed wealth at an unprecedented pace,” Cohen said.
Cohen said the Islamic State, which the U.S. and its allies have been pounding with airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, is earning millions from a combination of oil sales, ransoms and extortion schemes.
Cohen said kidnappings and ransom payments have brought in at least $20 million this year. He said the extortion and other criminal activity is bringing in several million per month.
Cohen, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, spoke at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, and later at the White House.
Cohen stressed the black market oil sales, which he said bring in about $1 million a day. He said the U.S. is trying to track down the middle men and other players to interrupt those sales. Cohen said these smuggling networks have been around for a long time and did not “pop up overnight,” but now it is clear that the oil is coming from the Islamic State.
Kurds thwart new Islamic State push to cut off Syria’s Kobani
MURSITPINAR, TURKEY – Kurdish forces thwarted a new attempt Sunday by Islamic State group fighters to cut off the Syrian town of Kobani from the border with Turkey before Iraqi Kurdish reinforcements can deploy.
The predawn assault marked the fourth straight day the jihadists had attacked the Syrian side of the border crossing as the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighters prepare to head for Kobani, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
Kurdish forces, backed by U.S.-led airstrikes, have been holding out for weeks against an Islamic State offensive around Kobani, which has become a high-profile symbol of efforts to stop the jihadist advance.
The U.S. military said in its latest update that American warplanes carried out five airstrikes near Kobani on Saturday and Sunday, destroying seven Islamic State vehicles and an jihadist-held building.
Ground fighting for Kobani has killed more than 800 people since the Islamic State offensive began on Sept. 16, with the jihadists losing 481 fighters and the Kurds 313, said the Britain-based Observatory, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria for its information.
Among the dead are 21 civilians, but the figures exclude Islamic State losses to U.S.-led airstrikes, which the Pentagon has said run to “several hundred”.
British Man Charged With Preparing to Commit Terrorist Acts
MOSCOW, October 24 (RIA Novosti) – Tuhin Shahensha, arrested by police on October 14, has been charged with preparing acts of terrorism under Section 5 of the Terrorism Act 2006, the Telegraph reports.
“The defendant is charged with one count of preparing acts of terrorism, which is an indictable only offence,” prosecutor Mark Dawson told the Westminster Magistrates’ Court, as quoted by the Telegraph.
Tuhin Shahensha, who allegedly planned to fight in Syria, has been remanded in to custody. District Judge John Zani sent the case to the Central Criminal Court, where the defendant is set to appear on November 14.
Tuhin Shahensha aged 26, from Portsmouth, UK, is one of six people arrested by officers from the South East Counter Terrorism Unit (SECTU) after a series of raids on October 14. Police later confirmed that warrants for the arrests were issued in relation with the ongoing civil war in Syria. Those detained did not pose “any immediate threat to local communities or anywhere else in the UK,” Thames Valley Police said in statement.
Russia
Russia – Ukraine tension take away:
Pro-EU struck a historical win in Sunday 26th general elections. This is in line with our scenario for the development of the current tension between Ukraine and Russia. While we see this results as been positive for the fight against bad governance and corruption and increase the likelihood for Ukraine to move closer to EU, we consider that Russia is likely to escalade.
Chancellor Merkel attitude is in line with our view that she is using Putin threat to push EU to undertake more reforms and more integration, while keeping the threat of Russia isolation very high. Meanwhile, Russia economy continues to tank.
We would like to remain our reader that when it comes to whether Russia will cut gas delivery to Europe, we believe that it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”. Our study of Putin chess game enables us to see that a moment where fear over Ebola will reach the level where any non-lethal flu could become a source of panic and paranoia , would be the genuine timing for cutting gas. This will help populists (supported by Putin) to criticise Europe even more.
Actually, many other political groups are using the strategy of making allegiance to Putin in order to push some domestically driven agenda.
Reports out of Sweden relative to underwater activities indicate that Sweden is shifting away from its “neutral” stands and is heading to put some additional pressure on Putin. Should Sweden change stands as the recent evidence are starting to show, Ukraine tension might increase because it will leave President Putin without any example of neutrality Ukraine should be bind by.
Comments by Swedish PM Lofven “[Sweden] have already say [it] will stay out of NATO” hint that the recent events are bringing the question back to the table (at least from the Russian prospective). The recent “tension” over military planes violating Estonia air space is another example of the fact that the situation is unlikely to settle before the beginning of next year.
Finally, U.S. is intensifying the pressure on Iran to move ahead with a deal, at a moment when Iranian media reported the dead of Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, the head of Iran’s top clerical body after lying in a coma for months, leaving a gap in the only institution that has the authority to elect and dismiss the country’s Supreme Leader. This does not create any short term change in the negotiation but it’s closing the window of opportunity for striking a deal. The fight between “hard-liners” and “conservatism” (supporters of Hassan Rohani) is likely to intensify going into 2016 election.
We continue to see only two possible outcomes: 1) Russia pursue its aggressive attitude and pushed for a separation of Ukraine at the expense of a full-fledge isolation, or 2) Russia opposition start to “challenge” President Putin to return to reforms. The second outcome is unlikely for now because intelligence from the ground is indicating that while the opposition is willing to change the trend, there is a serious lack of appetite to challenge President Putin be in openly or behind the scenes.
We foresee the situation to continue to deteriorate while Oil prices continue to plummet. Russian economy is likely to suffer a lot, while EU narrative is likely to change because the “communication war” which have been spurred by Russia and its supporters in the Western political groups is loosing traction.
Ukrainians support pro-Western parties in election
KIEV, Ukraine – Ukrainians overwhelmingly backed several pro-Western parties in a landmark parliamentary election Sunday, another nudge in the former Soviet republic’s drift away from Russia.
Two exit polls released as voting closed indicated that President Petro Poroshenko’s party will secure a narrow win in the parliamentary election, falling substantially short of an outright majority. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s Popular Front followed close behind.
Although they lead rival parties, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk share pro-Western sentiments and have campaigned on reform agendas aimed at pulling Ukraine back from the brink of economic ruin. The parties are expected to join forces with other reform-oriented groups to form a broad pro-European coalition.
Talking to supporters at his party headquarters, a visibly ebullient Poroshenko said coalition talks will start Monday and will last no longer than 10 days.
Almost three million people were unable to vote in eastern regions still gripped with unrest as government troops continue to wage almost daily battle against pro-Russian separatists.
The vote on Sunday will substantially overhaul a legislature once dominated by loyalists of ousted former president Viktor Yanukovych.
« We are seeing a triumph of pro-European forces and a collapse among pro-Russian parties, » said Mikhailo Mischenko, an analyst with the Razumkov Center think tank. « Ukrainian people see their future in Europe, and this is something that all Ukrainians politicians will have to account for. »
Putin accuses United States of damaging world order
(Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States on Friday of endangering global security by imposing a « unilateral diktat » on the rest of the world and shifted blame for the Ukraine crisis onto the West.
In a 40-minute diatribe against the West that was reminiscent of the Cold War and underlined the depth of the rift between Moscow and the West, Putin also denied trying to rebuild the Soviet empire at the expense of Russia’s neighbors.
« We did not start this, » Putin told an informal group of experts on Russia that includes many Western specialists critical of him, warning that Washington was trying to « remake the whole world » based on its own interests.
« Statements that Russia is trying to reinstate some sort of empire, that it is encroaching on the sovereignty of its neighbors, are groundless, » the former KGB spy declared in a speech delivered standing at a podium, without a smile, in a ski resort in mountains above the Black Sea city of Sochi.
Listing a series of conflicts in which he faulted U.S. actions, including Libya, Syria and Iraq, Putin asked whether Washington’s policies had strengthened peace and democracy.
Sweden calls off submarine search in Stockholm’s archipelago
Reports of foreign underwater activity in the Stockholm archipelago triggered week-long search
Sweden’s navy has cancelled its week-long operation in the archipelago off Stockholm after finding no trace of the Russian submarine widely anticipated by military specialists and the media.
“Our assessment is that in the inner archipelago there was a plausible foreign underwater operation,” Rear Adm Anders Grenstad said. “But we believe that what has violated Swedish waters has left.”
Whatever was there could not have been a conventional submarine, Grenstad said, but a “craft of a lesser type”. It was not possible to state how big it was or to what country it belonged, he added. “The operation is substantially complete. The vessels and amphibious units have gone to port and resumed normal preparedness,” he said.
The hunt began last Friday after a member of the public contacted the armed forces with substantial and credible information, he said. The public reported 250 sightings during the ensuing week, with the navy taking five of them seriously.
Some reports given prominence in the media turned out to have innocent explanations, such as the “man in black” allegedly hunted by special intelligence who was revealed to be a pensioner fishing for sea trout. There was also a media focus on possible Russian “mother ships” in the Baltic that were linked to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
For seven days, Sweden’s navy criss-crossed a vast expanse of water dotted with 30,000 islands, in what specialists likened to a search for a needle in a haystack.
Poroshenko Hopes to Reach Compromise on Russian Gas Deliveries on Wednesday
KIEV, October 26 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said the compromise on gas deliveries is « most likely » to be reached at the trilateral Russia-Ukraine-EU talks on Wednesday.
« I note that already on Wednesday we most likely will reach the compromise on gas. We have made significant progress, » Poroshenko said on air of Ukraine’s First National TV Channel late on Saturday.
Poroshenko reminded that Ukraine filed a lawsuit with the Stockholm arbitration court requesting a review of its gas contract with Russia’s Gazprom. « Only the court will tell how big the debt really is and what is the real price, » Poroshenko said.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong take away:
Hong Kong protests talks with HK’s government failed while violence coming from opponents to Umbrella Revolution increased. We believe that the situation is likely to continue to ebb and flow between some “tension” and discussions with HK government. The IV-Plenum communique indicated, as we were expecting, that the Chinese government is moving ahead with an agenda which should please the Occupy movement in Hong Kong as well as in other countries: 1) improve governance, 2) crack down on Corruption, 3) introduction of the rule of law and 4) independence of justice. These steps are likely to help President Xi government to start finding a way out of the current “crisis”. While we consider the reforms path is pointing to the right direction, we consider that China can accelerate because the new normal is getting understood by the public, the business community though the financial markets are still lagging behind. President Xi might use HK as a platform for political reform experiment. In nutshell, we see Occupy and Umbrella Revolution to be a green shot toward helping government understand that accountability, democracy, and the rule of law need to be strengthened and that there is no other ways but political reforms.
Former HK chief executive calls for end of occupation
Tung Chee-hwa, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and Hong Kong’s former Chief Executive, speaks at a press conference in Hong Kong, South China, Oct. 24, 2014. At the press conference on Friday, Tung called on protesters to end the occupation. (Xinhua/Qin Qing)
HONG KONG, Oct. 24 — The Occupy Central movement will tear Hong Hong’s community apart and severely affect the city’s economy and livelihood, Hong Kong’s former Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa said here on Friday, calling on protesters to end the occupation.
Tung, who is also vice-chairman of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, made the remarks at a press conference held in the former chief executive’s official mansion.
Tung expressed concern over the harm caused by the nearly month- long protests over constitutional development. « The occupation is approaching one month and now it’s time to end it, » he said, adding that he worried the so-called civil disobedience movement was « a little bit out of control. »
« In civilized societies, conflicts are resolved through dialogue, not in streets. Students should not use the occupation as bargaining chips for negotiation with the government, » Tung said.
Hong Kong protesters cancel vote on next step
The leaders of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests on Sunday cancelled a vote on what the next step should be in their month-long street occupation, saying they hadn’t properly consulted with the demonstrators before calling the referendum.
The two-day vote, which had been scheduled for Sunday and Monday, was supposed to have gauged the protesters’ support for counter proposals to offers made by Hong Kong’s government following talks last week between student protest leaders and authorities.
The government offered to submit a report to Beijing noting the protesters’ unhappiness with a decision to have an appointed committee screen candidates for the semiautonomous city’s leader, known as the chief executive. Protesters are demanding open nominations for chief executive in the city’s inaugural direct election, promised for 2017.
Protesters are demanding open nominations for chief executive in the city’s inaugural direct election, promised for 2017. The Chinese government usually appoints someone to the position. (Kin Cheung/ Associated Press)
« We admit that we did not have enough discussion with the people before deciding to go ahead with the vote and we apologize to the people, » the protest leaders said in a statement.
They also cited « differing opinions regarding the format, motions and effectiveness » of the referendum.
IAF asks personnel not to use Xiaomi phones
IAF personnel and their families have been asked to desist from using Chinese ‘Xiaomi Redmi 1s’ phones as these are believed to be transferring data to their servers in China and could be a security risk.
« F-secure, a leading security solution company, recently carried out a test of Xiaomi Redmi 1s, the company’s budget smartphone, and found that the phone was forwarding carrier name, phone number, IMEI (the device identifier) plus numbers from address book and text messages back to Beijing, » says an advisory issued by the IAF to its personnel.
The IAF note, issued some weeks back, has been prepared by the intelligence unit based on the inputs from Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), according to IAF sources.
Emails were sent by PTI to the company for its response on this development but those remained unanswered.
However, in a general statement two days back, the company had said it was fully committed to storing its users’ data securely at all times.
The company said it is migrating some data on non-Chinese customers away from its servers in Beijing due to performance and privacy considerations.
Poor health systems in Asia cause for Ebola alarm
The longer the Ebola outbreak rages in West Africa, the greater chance a traveler infected with the virus touches down in an Asian city.
How quickly any case is detected _ and the measures taken once it is _ will determine whether the virus takes hold in a region where billions live in poverty and public health systems are often very weak. Governments are ramping up response plans, stepping up surveillance at airports and considering quarantine measures. Still, health experts in the region’s less developed countries fear any outbreak would be deadly and hard to contain.
“This is a non-treatable disease with a very high mortality rate. And even a country like the United States has not been able to completely prevent it,” said Yatin Mehta, a critical care specialist at the Medanta Medicity hospital near New Delhi. “The government is trying. They are preparing and they are training, but our record of disaster management has been very poor in the past.”
Catalonia
Catalonia: referendum called off, Rajoy opened discussion to give more autonomy to Catalonia, Russia’s RT News is pressing Catalonian to revolt. We were expecting it and we add Catalonia to the numerous subjects were big data has proven its accuracy. However, any delay in negotiation between Catalonia and Madrid could reverse the tied. Unfortunately, many politicians have been used to procrastination and may try to promise reforms without delivering them. This time Spain has to face the reality: all over the world, the public awareness of “moral faults” has increased. Not solving Catalonia problem is giving more argument to the mistrust camp. It suffices that one sees the overwhelming indication that mistrust helps to radicalise the public, to conclude that procrastination would be responsible for public radicalisation. The Elite in Spain does not understand that the old days of the Spanish Monarchy without accountability is ending. They’re better get used to that and move forward. King Felipe-IV said last Friday « These feelings rooted and shared from North to South and from East to West in our territory, we should never forget them, much less lose them, » when addressing the annual Prince of Asturias Awards 2014. « On the contrary, we have to preserve and nurture them, » he added.
We were saying “calls for independence referendum is increasing pressure on both Madrid and EU to move forward to offer better conditions and better narrative to the public. We see PM Rajoy taking constitutional actions to deter Catalonia from conducting the referendum, at a moment where more the referendum is gaining support from the independence forces all over the world. Madrid may accept to open discussion to devote additional autonomy to Catalonia in order to reduce the pressure. This story is likely to push EUR existential threat higher short term, but we consider that EUR is likely to rebound by the end of this year, when these threats will be repriced as less likely.” (daily briefing Sept. 30 2014). Catalonia decision to suspend formal campaign is the first step in our constructive scenario. However, Artur Mas uses the threat of going ahead with the referendum, though the constitutional court has specified that’s un-constitutional. This threat is urging PM Rajoy to act which he did in Saturday by opening discussion of some kind of PM Cameron solution to Scotland independence call (i.e. more fiscal autonomy). Catalonia government will decide by October 15 on whether to hold referendum. We see the most likely scenario to be some deal with Madrid which would : 1) help Artur Mas to claim victory – he would have secured more autonomy – and 2) help PM Rajoy to de-escalade the tension over Catalonia. We see the next region to start a fight for more autonomy to be Bavaria (Germany’s most wealthy region which is pushing Alternative fur Deutschland – AfD – anti-EZ party wants to reduce its contribution to other regions – “lazy” EZ members states, in their parlance -. Business interest (Football Clubs) are starting to indicate the cost of a secession. Novo-Russia continue to support Catalonia, as a secession could help justify Crimea. Many have been talking about war in the East, the War against Russia is also taking place in Catalonia. The relations between populists parties in EU and Russia speaks volume. Czar Putin should make no mistake EU is one and indivisible. Populism is a cancer, EU is recovering from it.
Spain Should Avoid Split: King Felipe VI
MADRID, October 25 (RIA Novosti) – The Spanish should remember that they are united by emotional ties, King Felipe VI of Spain said.
« These feelings rooted and shared from North to South and from East to West in our territory, we should never forget them, much less lose them, » the king said Friday when addressing the annual Prince of Asturias Awards 2014. « On the contrary, we have to preserve and nurture them, » he added.
The statement comes on the threshold of the independence referendum in Catalonia.
« We, the Spanish, are no longer rivals to each other, » he added.
The focus of the king’s speech at the annual Prince of Asturias Awards 2014, which is one of the most prestigious awards in Spain in scientific, technical, cultural, social, and humanitarian work, was on two main issues: the Catalan independence referendum and the continuous corruption scandals that have divided the Spanish society.
Ferguson
Ferguson – Missouri: One word take Replace Catalonia, HK Occupy with Ferguson, keep calm and carry on.
A source told CBS News that Attorney General Eric Holder is « exasperated » by what he called « selective leaks » in the case. These selective leaks have increased the tension in Ferguson – Missouri as the protestors see in the leaks a gesture to skew the Grand Jury decision in this rather politically charged case.
In order to reduce the tension, an independent commission will be created to study issues that have surfaced since the fatal police shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon said Tuesday. This commission aims de-escalating a situation which could easy surge. The risk of surging is increasing as a newly leaked autopsy of Michael Brown, the unarmed 18-year-old black man shot by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri more than two months ago, indicates a gunshot wound to the hand from close range, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported.
The Tea Party caucus is using these events as a way to increase the racial tension, while Sen. Rand Paul wants to use the spread of African-American anger vis-a-vis President Obama administration as a way to bring these voters to the GOP. Sen. Rand Paul has used exactly the same strategy with the youth, which suffers the most from the global financial crisis consequences. The administration needs to increase it rhetoric against disinformation, mistrust and pessimism should it want to avoid that the voters turn to those who are placing the most emphasis on pessimism with the help of donors which interest is to keep status quo (at a moment when the US need urgently to undertake structural reforms – immigration, taxes etc. -). Furthermore, not only Tea Party caucus is using this strategy, the moderate Chris Christie whom have suffered from the Bridge scandal, is using the same strategy to change his image.
In general, Ferguson, HK Occupy, Scotland Independence, Catalonia share the same problem: inequality. Many are considering that Inequality will bring a class struggle and some kind of XIX century like revolution. Notwithstanding that depending on where someone seats, we might think that these mass protests (1000 for Ferguson, much more in Catalonia) are sufficient to start a revolution. But like we were saying in our earlier notes, we genuinely believe that Occupy and Anonymous groups have been hijacked by “commodity interest groups” (it suffice to look at the links between investment portfolio’s advise of those groups – Gold and Commodities – and the consequence of a derailed soft power to move toward better governance).
However, unlike in the old “organised revolutions” in LatAM, this time around the social media is in charge and the overwhelming majority wants to use soft power – and Ferguson is part of that – to press institutions to reforms. The chaos and Apocalypses imagined by the 3G group (the most radical group within libertarians and their name stands for Gold, Guns and God) are unlikely to take place. Of course Ebola, and ISIL are genuine threats but 1) the on-going improvement in governance (cf. Australia G-20), 2) the work to reduce disinformation and skepticism (EU, Gaza), 3) military and medical action against the two deadly diseases ISIL and Ebola, are supportive to the positive scenario. Furthermore, there is a win-win scenario which is taking place and which could help: workers, shareholders and consumer to benefit from.
Leaked information on Ferguson probe angers attorney general
FERGUSON, Mo. – The Justice Department continues to investigate the fatal shooting of a black man in Ferguson, Mo., by a white police officer. A source told CBS News that Attorney General Eric Holder is « exasperated » by what he called « selective leaks » in the case.
In Ferguson, protests over the shooting death of Michael Brown have intensified in the wake of the most recent leaks. Those leaks appear to support Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson, who claims he shot brown in self defense.
Last Friday, The New York Times reported that Wilson told investigators he « feared for his life » after Brown tried to grab his gun, which was fired twice during the struggle in Wilson’s car, hitting Brown once in the arm.
Then on Tuesday an official autopsy was published by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. It showed that Michael Brown had been shot at close range, and that Brown had marijuana in his system when he died.
Michael Brown shooting: Amnesty blasts Missouri police response
Police in Ferguson, Mo., committed human rights abuses as they sought to quell mostly peaceful protests that erupted after an officer killed an unarmed black teenager, an international human rights organization said in a report released on Friday.
The Amnesty International report said law enforcement officers should be investigated by U.S. authorities for the abuses, which occurred during weeks of racially charged protests that erupted after white Ferguson police officer Darren Wilson shot and killed Michael Brown, 18, on Aug. 9.
The use by law enforcement of rubber bullets, tear gas and heavy military equipment and restrictions placed on peaceful protesters all violated international standards, the group said.
Amnesty said it sent a delegation to Ferguson from Aug. 14-22 to monitor the situation.
When asked about the allegations, Brian Schellman, a spokesman for the St. Louis County Police Department, which helped oversee law enforcement operations in Ferguson, said police « had one mission, and that was the preservation of life. »
The report also criticizes a Missouri law that the group said may be unconstitutional because it allows police to use deadly force against someone even if there is no imminent threat of harm.
Hillary Clinton rallies women in New England
BOSTON (AP) — Facing an anxious electorate, Democrats are turning to Hillary Rodham Clinton to drum up support among female voters as polls suggest her party could be losing ground among women heading into next month’s elections.
Clinton on Friday rallied Democrats on behalf of Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, who is running for governor, and helped gubernatorial candidates in Rhode Island and Maine as part of a swing through New England aimed at boosting support among women.
« From my perspective, it shouldn’t even really be a race. It should not even be close, but we’re living during an election season where it’s close everywhere, » Clinton said as public polls show Coakley trailing Republican Charlie Baker. « And that’s why Martha needs you. »
US midterms elections
US midterms elections:
November 4th midterm elections is coming with many uncertainties. Should GOP win the Senate, the US administration is likely to find itself stuck with a divided government which could make : debt ceiling, budget negotiation, Fed Transparency Bill negotiation, very hard. Some humorists have called the Tea Party caucus to be the “no-negotiators”. Without leaning toward a liberal Tea Party bashing, we would like to remind our readers of October 2013 debt ceiling talk. These period have created too much fear that the US might default that some Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have been considering challenging the USD reserve currency privilege status. The average polls are giving 55% chance to the GOP to secure a win in the Senate. However, these polls do not track the weak signals narrative nor participation variable (a model we’ve built for Scotland Independence and which has proven a very good results). Koch donors story (politico here) is very interesting because it shows that Oil interest groups are busy trying to reduce the speed at which their wealth is evaporating. $1bn is the amount invested, hope that this investment does not include any link to gestures to destabilise the Homeland security. We are confident that private initiative such as Super Pac of Super Pacs (using public donation to cut interest groups campaign financing) would take over in the short term because Pension Funds and Investors will soon recognise that “Greed is NOT good” and better have a functioning democracy.
We continue to side with the consensus. But we consider that as soon as investors will start looking at the consequence of a GOP Senate majority win we might see some change in the dynamics. We have the opportunity to use a new source of big data information. We will be using it to bring the change in the narrative in the coming 3 weeks. Stay tuned and thanks for your support.
The recent polls which show a GOP turnout advantage, should be taken with a pinch of salt. The reason is that turnout is a very volatile variable and depend on the consequence of not showing in the polls. Countries differ in their reaction function to election. As a general view, the more a country struggles to get rights the more the public is fearing the return of any dark days and go to the polls. The more the media will focus on the fact that GOP are winning (with the consecutive effects) the more the voters might increase their turnout. We believe that this “reversibility of votes” is the “magic” bullet which might help save some efficacy for the second half of President Obama tenure as well as avoid an incredible economic headwinds (see here Ted Cruz agenda for GOP Senate). Should one add Senator Ted Cruz comments, those of Senator Rand Paul (which spur fear about Ebola), we might find ourselves in situation which would have many similarities to Nero burning Rome (click here).
These are the reasons why we are less confident than many commentators in the US that GOP Senate majority is a given. The fear mongering is likely to play against GOP because it’s a sign of irresponsibility that a to-become-a-leader would cry to the wolf instead of tackling issues. Actually, GOP has tried to use the big data approach which helped Barack Obama to win twice the presidency. Unfortunately for the GOP the most social media active conservative are all from the tea party, Gold bugs ideological views. These are incapable of thinking of a negotiation because their aim is to destroy State. In that sense, we feel that they are very close to ISIL thinking.
GROWING EBOLA FEARS LOOM LARGE IN US ELECTIONS
WASHINGTON (AP) — Only four people have been diagnosed with Ebola in the U.S but the fearsome disease has become a dominant issue in midterm elections less than two weeks away.
Republicans, who are hoping to win back the Senate majority, have seized on public worries that the virus could spread in the United States to slam the Obama administration’s response. Democrats have accused the Republicans of fear-mongering, but a few have joined in the criticism as a way to distance themselves from President Barack Obama, whose approval ratings are just a tick over their lowest ever for his six years in the White House.
An Associated Press-GfK poll found the disease is at the top of voters’ minds as Election Day approaches, with 74 percent saying it is a very or extremely important. And likely voters aren’t happy with the administration’s response, as 56 percent expressing disapproval. Concerns deepened with the news this week that a fourth person had been diagnosed with the virus in the country — a doctor who had recently returned to New York City from Guinea, where he had been treating Ebola victims.
« Fear is a powerful, powerful instinct and to the degree it can be manipulated, both parties are going to do it, » said James Riddlesperger, a political scientist at Texas Christian University.
Sen. Kay Hagan, a North Carolina Democrat facing a tough battle to keep her seat, recently broke ranks with her party to join her Republican challenger in calling on Obama to temporarily ban the travel of non-U.S. citizens from affected countries in West Africa. That switch came just days after Hagan said such a tactic « is not going to help » unless it is part of a broader strategy.
Obama’s Ebola czar lacks medical authority
With midterm elections so close, it was inevitable that Ebola would become another depressing political point of division. A scary disease, a scare-mongering media and an easily scared American people make the politics of fear its own epidemic.
Republicans in Congress have led the charge to exploit the moment, calling for a ban on travel between West Africa and the United States. In response, the Obama administration has appointed an Ebola « czar » with a political background.
None of this inspires confidence. While a travel ban is an option that can’t be ruled out, attempting a quarantine of several West African nations now is premature and could encourage more travelers to be evasive.
The United States is a nation of more than 319 million people; so far, three cases have been diagnosed here and one visitor from Liberia subsequently died. Five Americans infected in West Africa were successfully brought home for treatment.
Do Latino voters matter in the midterm election?
Since President Obama trounced former GOP nominee Mitt Romney among Latino voters, 71 to 27 percent, in 2012, many a political prognosticator has warned that Republicans would be doomed in future national elections if they did not take steps to win over the Hispanic community.
That could be true in 2016, but as far as the 2014 midterm elections go, there are only a handful of competitive elections in states where Latinos have a large enough presence to make an impact.
One of those states is Colorado, where Latinos make up 15.4 percent of the eligible voting population, according to 2013 American Community Survey statistics analyzed by the polling firm Latino Decisions. They played a pivotal role in electing Michael Bennet, one of the state’s two Democratic senators, in 2010, a year when Republicans swept elections across the country.
Is Hulu Silently Advocating for Colorado’s Personhood Amendment?
As Americans gear up to cast their votes in this year’s midterm elections, political ads are saturating their experiences on every media outlet they choose. But not all platforms are giving each side equal airtime.
Hulu, the popular online video-streaming service owned by 21st Century Fox, the Walt Disney Co. and NBCUniversal, is being accused of trying to influence Colorado politics by refusing to air a pro-choice advertisement. This comes as the state considers Amendment 67, a ballot initiative to expand the definition of a person to include “unborn human beings” in Colorado’s criminal code.
This means murder, “to cause the death of another person,” would technically include abortion and emergency contraception. But the potentially far-reaching impact of Amendment 67 doesn’t stop there.
John Boehner boosts House GOP coffers for final campaign stretch
House Speaker John Boehner pumped another $1.3 million into the House GOP campaign committee this week, funding a blitz of TV ads and get-out-the-vote efforts in the final stretch of the midterm elections.
That brings Boehner’s total fundraising this cycle to nearly $100 million, according to his campaign. The latest infusion of cash is a transfer of funds from committees controlled by Boehner to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Political analysts say Republicans are poised to gain four to 10 seats this election, which would give the GOP more muscle in the 114th Congress as they seek to curb President Obama’s agenda and press their own priorities.
The bigger the GOP gains, the better for Boehner.
The Ohio Republican’s tenure as speaker has been rocky at best, marked by a series of revolts from conservatives who felt he was too accommodating or timid in his dealings with President Obama and Senate Democrats. A larger majority could give Boehner more wiggle room come January.
House Democrats on defense in Nevada
WASHINGTON (AP) — National Democrats are buying ad time to protect a suddenly vulnerable, first-term Nevada congressman as a handful of House races turn more competitive within days of midterm elections.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will partner with Rep. Steve Horsford’s campaign to air commercials in the Las Vegas broadcast market through Election Day, a Democratic official said Friday. The official, who was not authorized to be identified discussing party strategy, did not disclose the amount of the buy.
The move comes in response to the $820,000 that the Karl Rove-founded Crossroads GPS is spending in the district targeting Horsford. Democrats also have been unnerved by a low turnout in early voting in the Democratic-leaning district.
« I have faith and confidence in the voters of Nevada’s 4th District, » Horsford said in a statement earlier this week. « They saw through Karl Rove’s misleading campaign in 2012, and they will not be fooled by a last-minute, million-dollar, out-of-state shadowy campaign. »
Former President Bill Clinton will headline a « vote early, vote now » rally for Democratic candidates, including Horsford, on Tuesday in Las Vegas, the party said Friday.
President Barack Obama’s low approval ratings and a sour public mood are a drag on Democrats, who have shifted money to save several of their most vulnerable incumbents. Less than two weeks to the Nov. 4 election, the two parties and outside groups are spending money on races that hadn’t been considered competitive.
EARLY VOTING ALTERS CAMPAIGNS’ STRATEGIES, COSTS
LOS ANGELES (AP) — For over 1 million Californians, the Nov. 4 election is over. That’s because they’ve already voted.
A growing throng of early voters in the nation’s most populous state – perhaps comprising half of all votes to be cast in California’s general election – has stretched Election Day into weeks. Candidates who wait until the end to close the deal with voters will be too late.
« The election is not a one-day event anymore. It’s a 30-day event, » said veteran Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, who is spearheading Kennedy clan member Bobby Shriver’s campaign for Los Angeles County supervisor. The midterm elections are just over a week away and California is one of more than 30 states in which some form of advance voting is shaping the way campaigns must be conducted. In some rural areas of the state, 8 of every 10 ballots cast could come through the mail.
Who ‘likes’ Mitch McConnell? Facebook unveils new tool for election 2014.
Facebook’s new interactive map of Election 2014 races based on social media activity could have some predictive value. But Facebook is probably also looking for campaigns to spend ad money on the site.
WASHINGTON — In the closely watched Senate race in Kentucky, Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell is clobbering Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes with affection – he’s got 153,500 “likes” on his Facebook page vs. her 98,300 likes.
Hillary Clinton rallies women in New England
BOSTON (AP) — Facing an anxious electorate, Democrats are turning to Hillary Rodham Clinton to drum up support among female voters as polls suggest her party could be losing ground among women heading into next month’s elections.
Clinton on Friday rallied Democrats on behalf of Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, who is running for governor, and helped gubernatorial candidates in Rhode Island and Maine as part of a swing through New England aimed at boosting support among women.
« From my perspective, it shouldn’t even really be a race. It should not even be close, but we’re living during an election season where it’s close everywhere, » Clinton said as public polls show Coakley trailing Republican Charlie Baker. « And that’s why Martha needs you. »
US News
US other news: Oil prices have reached our second target $80 much quickly than anticipated. However, we consider that they’ll plateau in the short term at these level until Iran nuclear negotiations go through. In the case of success we might see prices resuming their downward trend. U.S. administration just started to take seriously numerous report of ISIL funding through Oil trade. The administration threatened to take sanctions measures against those who buy Oil from ISIL. This may create some tension with Turkey, unless President Erdogan uses this approach to go after Muslim Brotherhood groups.
We have been sharing last week an interesting paper on why ISIS excels at recruiting American teens. This trend is the most worrying while the terrorists propaganda based, on the Apocalypse and the spread view that “institutions are rotten to the core”, is gaining traction is more forums (libertarians blogs for example). I was puzzled by the number of blogs and how some Hedge Funds have been financing libertarians views although they repeat all of them the same information, data, reasoning etc. This become clearer with the recent rush to sell to small investors energy funds, while the overwhelming data and news are supportive to do the opposite. It’s frustrating that the US SEC does not protect sufficiently investors by requiring to check how these funds are sold. From a 20 years marketing experience in finance, I witnessed at least one case over two deals where the investor has not been given the full information although salesmen knew it. In a world where data are everywhere and the tools to make the sense of it are already very efficient and cheap, I do believe that financial institutions have better to be very cautious. As we have been saying many times: last time financial institutions suffers multi-billions sanctions, next time (if these do not take the genuine actions to improve governance and marketing practices) it may end up into jail time. I doubt that oil funds salesmen discussed with their clients the situation in Iran negotiation and how this could take the oil into another plunge.
Informations out of North Korea have proven our thoughts right: Kim Jong Un has personally ordered to free the M. Jowle. This is a weak signal that North Korea leadership is willing to soften its stands when its old partners are moving toward a new strategy. We see this development increasing the chances of a reunification with South Korea. This story should accelerate when President XI and PM Abe will meet and reduce the seemingly tension over the disputed regions.
Lenders Facing Soaring Costs Shutting Out U.S. Homebuyers
Clem Ziroli Jr.’s mortgage firm, which has seen its costs soar to comply with new regulations, used to make about three loans a day. This year Ziroli said he’s lucky if one gets done.
His First Mortgage Corp., which mostly loans to borrowers with lower FICO credit scores and thick, complicated files, must devote triple the time to ensure paperwork conforms to rules created after the housing crash. To ease the burden, Ziroli hired three executives a few months ago to also focus on lending to safe borrowers with simpler applications.
“The biggest thing people are suffering from is the cost to manufacture a loan,” said Ziroli, president of the Ontario, California-based firm and a 22-year industry veteran. “If you have a high credit score, it’s easier. For deserving borrowers with lower scores, the cost for mistakes is prohibitive and is causing lenders to not want to make those loans.”
Average US 30-year loan rate falls to 3.92 pct.
WASHINGTON — Average US long-term mortgage rates continued to slide this week, raising prospects of a wave of consumers refinancing their loans. The 30-year mortgage fell further below 4 percent.
Mortgage company Freddie Mac said Thursday that the nationwide average for a 30-year loan declined to 3.92 percent from 3.97 percent last week — the lowest level since June 2013. It stood at 4.53 percent back in January. The average for a 15-year mortgage, a popular choice for people who are refinancing, fell to 3.08 percent from 3.18 percent.
It was the fifth straight week that mortgage rates retreated.
The possibility of locking in a mortgage rate below 4 percent can be tantalizing for consumers.
Before last week, many bankers, lenders, and borrowers had assumed that mortgage rates would soon start rising, based on expectations the Federal Reserve would start raising its key short-term rate next year — a move that likely would lead to higher mortgage rates.
NYMEX-U.S. crude slips below $82 after rally on Saudi lead
SINGAPORE, Oct 24 (Reuters) – U.S. crude futures pulled back on Friday to trade below $82 a barrel, after rising the most since mid-September in the previous session on news that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia supplied less oil to the market last month.
FUNDAMENTALS
* U.S. crude for December delivery had dropped 31 cents to $81.78 a barrel by 0016 GMT, after gaining $1.57 on Thursday. That was the biggest daily gain for West Texas Intermediate since Sept. 16.
* December Brent crude slipped 17 cents to $86.66 per barrel. Brent jumped more than $2 the session before, also its largest increase since Sept. 16. In terms of percentage, Brent’s 2.5-percent rise was the largest since June 12.
* Saudi Arabia supplied less crude oil to the market in September than a month earlier, an industry source said on Thursday, at a time when some OPEC members are calling on Saudi to cut output to lift prices that have fallen to four-year lows last week.
* Crude supply from the OPEC heavyweight fell to 9.36 million barrels per day in September from 9.688 million bpd in August, the source said, without giving a reason for the drop.
* For the week, U.S. crude is still on track for a fourth weekly drop, while Brent is up marginally after a four-week slide.
* The premium for benchmark cash WTI crude in Cushing, Oklahoma has tumbled to its lowest in six months, threatening to flip the U.S. futures market into contango and set the stage for a further slump in prices.
* The Obama administration threatened to slap sanctions on anyone buying oil from Islamic State militants in an effort to disrupt what it said was a $1-million-a-day funding source.
* A struggle has broken out for control of Libya’s state-run energy sector as rival governments in Tripoli and the east compete for power, but a common interest in maintaining oil revenues will keep exports flowing for now.
Calif. cop-killer suspect with AR-15-type assault weapon captured after tense manhunt, cops say
A suspect described as a « one-man crime spree » is accused of shooting three Northern California sheriff’s deputies, killing two of them and wounding a civilian, then eluding hundreds of searchers before being hunted down and forced to surrender, authorities said.
Marcelo Marquez of Salt Lake City was examined at a hospital for unknown injuries.
« I think there’s those people who would say, ‘You know what, I wish you’d killed him,' » Placer County Sheriff Ed Bonner said at a news conference Friday evening. « Now, that’s not who we are. We are not him. We did our job. »
Marquez, 34, and a woman also taken into custody were questioned by investigators about their motives late Friday night, said Sacramento County sheriff’s Sgt. Lisa Bowman said.
It wasn’t immediately clear when they would be formally booked.
Iran will be seen as responsible if nuclear talks fail – U.S.
(Reuters) – Iran will be widely seen to be responsible if a comprehensive deal to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief is not reached, the top U.S. negotiator said on Thursday.
U.S. Under-Secretary of State Wendy Sherman also said major powers negotiating with Iran have offered it ideas that are « equitable, enforceable and consistent with Tehran’s expressed desire for a viable civilian nuclear programme.” Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States are seeking to reach a deal with Iran by Nov. 24. Sherman said Iran’s best chance to escape economic sanctions was to strike an agreement before that deadline.
In a speech, Sherman said the United States and the other major powers were prepared to reach an agreement and suggested it would ultimately be seen to be Iran’s fault if one did not materialise.
Turkish dealers helping ISIL earn $1 million per day from oil: US Treasury
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is earning about $1 million a day from black market oil sales, the United States has said, vowing to impose harsh sanctions on the purchasers of the oil, “including middlemen from Turkey.”
“With the important exception of some state-sponsored terrorist organizations, ISIL is probably the best-funded terrorist organization we have confronted,” David Cohen, U.S. Treasury Department undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a speech at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington on Oct. 23. “It has amassed wealth at an unprecedented pace.”
ISIL is generating tens of millions of dollars a month through a combination of oil sales, ransom, extortion and other criminal activities, and support from wealthy donors, said Cohen, laying out the most comprehensive outline yet of the U.S. financial strategy against the group.
“It is difficult to get precise revenue estimates … but we estimate that beginning in mid-June, ISIL has earned approximately $1 million a day from oil sales,” Cohen said. Other estimates have ranged as high as $3 million a day.
The Narrow Path to Victory: Dems fight to keep control of Senate in final week
Amid all the predictions of a Republican-led stomping on Election Day, Democrats and the outside groups supporting them still see a path to victory and are planning a blitz in key states that could act as a firewall against a GOP Senate takeover.
As the campaign enters its final full week, Democrats also are trying to keep Republican attacks at bay by focusing on local issues – as opposed to President Obama – and are training resources on getting out the vote, including with early voting.
Republicans continue to voice confidence about their chances, and political prognosticators largely predict the GOP will control Congress next year.
But Democrats are staying focused.
Justin Barasky, at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, pointed to key races where, despite what Republicans are saying about Obama being an albatross, the numbers appear to be improving for the Democrats.
That includes Democrat Michelle Nunn in her race against Republican David Perdue for the open Senate seat in Georgia. Recent polls have shown her up by a few points, though the race still is very close – and the winner needs over 50 percent to avoid a runoff.
Europe News
EU other news: While the EU member states 2015 budget discussion is on-going, EU struck two important deals: 1) European Union leaders agreed early Friday to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the 28-nation bloc to at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 (while before the meeting Chancellor Merkel was indicating that the challenge was great and the negotiation would not be easy), 2) better coordination in the Ebola outbreak front (this is likely to provide the path toward so form of EU – CDC which would have to coordinate efforts -.
We have been indicating that we consider that EZ narrative has shifted to more positive dynamic. Indeed, an European Union accounting change has improved Cyprus’s public-finance outlook more than any other euro-zone nation, raising the prospects it will exit a bailout program ahead of schedule and sell bonds this year.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer is to promise to get up to half a million more women into the workplace as part of a new Conservative push on the economy and to regain women votes which have been defecting to other mainstream parties (Women voters are smart enough to not trust UKIP and populists parties according to polls analysis). PM Cameron at the other side of the spectrum is making “noise” against EU, in order to reduce the haemorrhage of Tories supporters defecting to UKIP. We find this approach dangerous and self-defeating although its the only political game PM Cameron could play at present. Indeed, the more PM Cameron criticised immigration and EU policies the more he increases his chances that the public will see in his the charismatic leader which stands out and secured a deal against EU bureaucrats. But while we believe that the negotiation has already taken place and the PM is trying to flex mussels to keep his political base, we consider that the negative rhetoric vis-a-vis immigrant coming from EU is dangerous because it could spur a reversal in the trend which started since Fmr. PM Margaret Thatcher. At that time, Britain was considered to be “eldorado” for Italian, Spaniards, French and Eastern European alike which re-allocate in Britain to create businesses, work and make a leaving. By criticising these “migrants” – some of them are british citizens now -, which have enriched Britain culture as well as its GDP, PM Cameron is threatening to reverse the flow of migration, while many Eurozone countries are genuinely embracing structural reforms and lacking stamina of the immigrant to create jobs, businesses and growth. We are surprised that PM Cameron does not out speak about oligarchs migration which have not brought only “clean” money and which, as it did in the south of France, have financed populist groups to hit EU hard when Russia is struggling geopolitically.
EU to cut greenhouse gas emissions
BRUSSELS – European leaders agreed early Friday to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the 28-nation bloc to at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.
EU says Ukraine gas talks to be continued next week The deal was aimed at countering climate change and setting an example for the rest of the world ahead of key international climate negotiations next year.
A package agreed by leaders at an EU summit in the early hours of Friday after lengthy negotiations also requires climate-friendly, renewable energy to provide at least 27 percent of the bloc’s needs and demands that energy efficiency increase by at least 27 percent in the next 16 years.
European Union leaders seek to produce more aid in fight against; UK ups its pledge
BRUSSELS – Britain pledged an additional 100 million euro ($126 million) to fight Ebola and Prime Minister David Cameron called on the other European Union leaders at a summit to step up their efforts to contain the deadly virus too.
Cameron had set an EU target of 1 billion euros ($1.26 billion) last week and prior to Thursday’s start of a two-day EU leaders’ summit, the bloc’s total anti-Ebola commitments were over halfway to that goal.
Britain said its total contribution now stood at 256 million euros ($324 million) toward fighting Ebola, more than any other EU nation.
« We need other European countries to do more, » said Cameron, exerting diplomatic pressure as he entered EU headquarters.
At the summit, the EU’s executive Commission also pledged another 24.4 million euros in research to on an Ebola vaccine.
« We are in a race against time on Ebola, » Barroso said. « We must address both the emergency situation and at the same time have a sustained medium and long-term response. »
Britain looking at curbing migrant workers from EU: government minister
(Reuters) – Limiting the number of European Union citizens who are allowed to work in Britain is among proposals to curb immigration being looked at by the government, Defense Minister Michael Fallon said on Sunday.
Fallon, whose governing Conservatives are coming under pressure to harden their line on immigration due to the rise in popularity of the anti-EU UK Independence Party, said that parts of Britain felt « under siege » from an influx of migrant workers.
Prime Minister David Cameron has promised to renegotiate Britain’s ties with the EU ahead of a referendum on membership if he wins a 2015 election, and is due to set out in the coming weeks plans for tackling immigration.
« We are looking at the numbers particularly, is it right to allow huge numbers to come in particular sectors, in particular areas of the country without any kind of restraint whatsoever?, » Fallon told Sky News.
Limiting National Insurance numbers, required to work in Britain, was one idea being looked at, he said.
UPDATE 3-Euro zone risks « relapse into recession » without structural reforms – Draghi
* Euro zone recovery has stalled, leaders have few options to act
* Draghi urges joint action to avoid « relapse into recession »
* Italy, France want more spending room despite EU budget rules
* Merkel calls for private investment plus fiscal discipline (Adds quotes from Commission president)
By Francesco Guarascio and Robin Emmott
BRUSSELS, Oct 24 (Reuters) – The ECB’s president warned divided euro zone leaders on Friday they risked « a relapse into recession » if they failed to press ahead with structural economic reforms, a message welcomed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
With a recovery coming to a halt in the second quarter and depressed prices reflecting near record unemployment, France and Italy want to shift away from the spending cuts that marked the bloc’s response to the 2009-2012 crisis.
But Germany says debt discipline must continue and the European Commission, which acts as a budget policeman, has until next Wednesday to reject 2015 budgets that fail to comply with EU fiscal rules.
France and Italy are pushing for more spending room in their budgets in return for new commitments on structural reforms, and officials say that any changes Paris and Rome make to their budgets are likely to be small.
Putin Ostracism Gets No Applause From German Businessman
Critics must stop ostracizing Putin and show more readiness to talk to salvage Germany’s economic links with Russia, said Eckhard Cordes, head of the BDI industry federation’s committee for eastern Europe.
“If there is no solution to the crisis soon, the relationship of trust between business partners will erode,” said Cordes, who is a former chief executive officer of retailer Metro AG (MEO) and top executive at automaker Daimler AG. (DAI) While the clash between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government and his European Union and U.S. adversaries is no longer worsening, political relations are unlikely to improve any time soon, Cordes said in an interview in Berlin yesterday.
Britain’s Palestine vote is a non-starter
It would be intellectually dishonest to reflect on the British House of Commons vote of Monday, 13 October, on a Palestinian state without digging deeper into history. Regardless of the meaning of the non-binding motion, the parliamentary action cannot be brushed off as just another country to recognise Palestine.
Unlike Sweden’s like move 3 October, and most of the 130 plus countries to effectively recognise Palestine, Britain is a party in the Middle East’s most protracted conflict. In fact, if it were not for Britain, there would be no conflict, or even Israel, of which to speak. It is within this context that the British vote matters, and greatly so.
As I listened to the heated debate among British MPs that preceded the historic vote of 272 in favour and 12 against, phantoms of historic significance occupied my mind.
When my father was born in historic Palestine in 1936, he found himself in a world politically dominated by Britain. Born and raised in the now long-destroyed Palestinian village of Beit Daras — which, like the rest of historic Palestine has now become part of “Israel proper” — he along with his family was entrapped between two anomalies that greatly scarred the otherwise peaceful landscape of Palestine’s countryside. A Jewish colony called Tabiyya, along with a heavily fortified British police compound that was largely aimed at safeguarding the interests of the colony, subjugated Beit Daras.
ISIS Threatens to Kill British Jihadis Wanting to Return Home
Muslim extremists from Britain, who went to Syria and Iraq to fight alongside the Islamic State, are now desperate to return home but are facing death threats from the militant group’s top leaders, a media report said.
« There are Britons who upon wanting to leave have been threatened with death, either directly or indirectly, » the Guardian reported, citing a source with extensive contacts among Syrian militant groups.
The report comes after the killing of another young Muslim from Portsmouth on the frontline in Syria, the fourth to die from a group of six men known as the « Pompey lads’ who travelled together to fight for ISIS.
19-year-old Muhammad Mehdi Hassan is understood to have died on Friday during the ISIS offensive to capture the Syrian border city of Kobani.
Canada Finds Difficult Balancing Public Security, Respecting Individual Rights: Expert
WASHINGTON, October 24 (RIA Novosti) – Canadian authorities will be challenged with balancing public safety and respect for individual liberties in the wake of the recent shootings, Assistant Professor at the University of Ottawa’s School of International Development and Global Studies Benjamin Zyla said.
« The difficulty for the authorities in Canada and abroad thereby is to find the right balance between providing more security for the public on the one hand while respecting individual rights and freedoms of citizens on the other, » Zyla told RIA Novosti Thursday. « They must also avoid stereotyping certain groups and thereby pushing them into isolation. »
Zyla noted that the shooting at the National War Memorial in Ottawa raises a lot of questions on many levels, which will be addressed in the coming days and weeks.
China News
China: Home prices fall for the fifth month in September. This confirms our view of the curent dynamics on hold in China: resilient labor market and export demand are helping the world’s second-largest economy weather a housing market downturn. At the same time, SOE (state own enterprises) have been suffering from: lower profits and investments.
This is in line with the rebalancing objective to move away from the old growth drivers and focus on economic reforms. News out of the corporate sector shows that even in this field China is delivering the reforms announced (shift toward “Social Capitalism” model).
As the economy continue to soft land, we see the Chinese leadership continuing to support governance improvement and crack down on corruption. For example, Australian police have agreed to assist China in the extradition and seizure of assets of corrupt Chinese officials who have fled with hundreds of millions of dollars in illicit funds, the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper reported (see more below).
We believe that Chinese leadership will continue to drive the growth lower but smoothly to avoid triggering a hard landing chock. We see any stimuli to be small and targeted because the government continues to fear that the economic rebalancing has not taken momentum yet although 1) labor intensive manufacturers are relocating in cheaper labor countries, 2) businesses are upgrading their business models [while becoming environmental friendly], 3) President Xi has conducted many trade – investment agreement with Neighbours (after Premier Li did the same in Africa) to secure investment projects which use Chinese manpower – engineers know-how in this domaine, 4) China is gaining more military presence and has fluxed it mussels – e.g. China “Top Gun” intercept by a US fighter jet -, 5) China has signed many RMB agreement which reinforce the currency usage and prepare its full liberalisation – after Free Trade Zones (FTZ) have proven to be a success -, 6) China has undertaken a genuine fight against bad governance and better regulation – many examples in our recent daily briefings of fight against corruption and bad governance-.
While the recent decisions strengthen President Xi power, we foresee the first objective of the Chinese President to be rebalancing the Chinese economy while cooling the pressure which have developed in China (banking, housing etc.).
UPDATE 2-Chinese home prices fall for fifth month in Sept, year’s gains lost
* Sept home prices fell for 1st time y/y in nearly two years
* Prices down 1.0 pct on month, fifth straight fall
* New home prices fell m/m in record 69 cities
* Sales improved on easier mortgages (Adds detail, GDP forecast, jobless rate)
By Xiaoyi Shao and Clare Jim
BEIJING/HONG KONG, Oct 24 (Reuters) – Chinese home prices fell for a fifth straight month in September, wiping out gains scored in the past year and raising expectations the government will have to implement more economic support measures to cushion the blow.
The monthly falls left average home prices in 70 major Chinese cities down 1.3 percent in September from a year earlier, the first such drop since November 2012.
New home prices fell month-on-month in a record 69 of the 70 major cities, up from 68 in August. Only the southern city of Xiamen saw stable prices last month, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed.
Shanghai shares fall on delay in cross-border trading plan
Shanghai shares had their biggest weekly loss since March compared with their Hong Kong H-share counterparts amid growing concern a trading link between the two cities’ stock markets will be delayed.
UPDATE 1-Colgate profit down on weak Brazil, China demand; warns on dollar
Oct 24 (Reuters) – Colgate-Palmolive Co reported a 17 percent drop in third-quarter profit and lowered its full-year earnings forecast, hurt by weak demand in Brazil and China and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Shares of the company, whose profit has fallen in four of the past six quarters, fell 2 percent before the bell on Friday.
The stronger dollar will slow the company’s full-year profit per share growth to 3-4 percent, Colgate said. It had previously expected a 4-5 percent growth.
U.S. companies with big international operations are having to adjust to a new environment after more than a decade of reaping the benefits of a relatively weak dollar on earnings.
Emerging markets, which generate about 50 percent of Colgate’s net sales, have weakened in the past few months, with Brazil slipping into recession and China facing what is said to be its worst slowdown in 24 years.
China Launches Robotic Probe on Round Trip to the Moon
BEIJING — China launched an experimental spacecraft on Friday to fly around the moon and back to Earth in preparation for the country’s first unmanned return trip to the lunar surface.
The eight-day program is a test run for a 2017 mission that aims to have a Chinese spacecraft land on the moon, retrieve samples and return to Earth. That would make China only the third country after the United States and Russia to have carried out such a mission.
The spacecraft lifted off from the southwestern Xichang satellite launch center early in the morning, separated from its carrier rocket and entered its planned orbit shortly afterward, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.
Apple CEO says had ‘very open’ privacy talks in China: Xinhua
(Reuters) – Apple Inc Chief Executive Tim Cook was quoted on Friday as saying he had « very open » talks on privacy and security with a senior Chinese official, days after a web monitoring group linked the government to a hack into Apple’s iCloud service in China.
Cook’s remarks, made in an interview to the official Xinhua news agency, were his first public comments since meeting Vice Premier Ma Kai in Beijing on Wednesday.
Cook’s China visit has been overshadowed by a report by web monitoring group Greatfire.org, which alleged the Chinese government was involved in a sophisticated and widespread hacking attack on Apple users in China.
China has to promote rule of law via binding State and society alike
Those of us who are interested in China have been fascinated by the campaign against corruption that has unfolded over the past year and more. This campaign has gone on longer and cut deeper by far than any similar campaign in the reform era.
But of course, what has grabbed people’s attention is the issue of reform and how China can prevent such corruption in the future.
More broadly, the subject of corruption is part of the broader topic of building good governance.
Building good governance is important for all countries. Governance is about creating fairer and more just societies, improving the life chances of citizens, reducing crime and corruption, providing citizens with public goods and services and so forth.
Beyond such abstract notions of a better life, however, there is a very practical reason to pursue good governance; it correlates very strongly with economic growth and sustainable development.
Building a legal system is critical for building good governance. At some point, the campaign must give way to institutions. What type of institutions can really « put power in a cage? »
It seems that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee will begin the process of building new institutions. Hopefully new institutions will be rolled out that will make it so corruption cannot occur.
Australia News
Australia: As we were expecting, Australia CPI remains low and enables RBA to stay put (due to the fear of a housing bubble, which the central bank is dealing with through macro prudential tools). However, Australia continues to be seen, by markets, as a derivative to the old Chinese model (i.e. commodity provider). This view explains the high beta between Australian assets and commodity prices (or China demand for commodities). Banks shares are suffering from the combination of the increase perception of increase in risks and additional macro prudential constants to curb housing prices frothiness. Small business defined the “goldilock range” for AUDUSD to be [.90-.94]. This level is much higher than RBA own assessment (based on PPP models). We have been criticising PPP models because they do not factor any structural changes.
These assume that neither China nor Australia are conducting their rebalancing agenda. We do believe that the current weaknesses offers genuine opportunity to benefit from the other drivers to the Australian economy which are not related to commodities. We see the current Australian Dollar weakness to continue at least until the USD start to weaken again when markets will realise that it has beaten too much on a quick rate normalisation. Meanwhile, from our previous daily briefing, we have gathered sufficient support to the view that the drivers of the Australian GDP are moving toward: 1) education, health and finance services provider to Asian neighbours, 2) innovation and digital sector, 3) energy resources export to Japan (the later contributes to our constructive view that the current negative Japan Energy Trade deficit will rebalance in the medium term – reducing Japanese Government bonds solvency risk – ).
$A bounces back above 88 US cents
The Australian dollar has bounced back above 88 US cents thanks to a weaker greenback.
At 1700 AEDT on Monday, the local currency was trading at 88.16 US cents, up from 87.65 cents on Friday.
It was a quiet day for the Australian dollar but the currency managed to get a leg up thanks to a weaker US dollar, Forex.com research analyst Chris Tedder said.
« In the absence of any real market-moving data events, the Australian dollar is just treading water at the moment, » Mr Tedder said.
Mr Tedder said traders would now start forming positions ahead of this week’s US Federal Open Market Committee meeting where the Fed is expected to announce an end to its quantitative easing program.
« The market is anticipating that while the FOMC will end tapering, they’ll sound slightly more dovish in the statement to try and curb any big moves in the market, » Mr Tedder said.
« There’s going to be a lot of preparatory moves ahead of the FOMC and we do expect that to become more evident later in the week. »
At 1700 AEDT the Australian dollar was buying 95.14 Japanese yen, up from Friday’s close of 94.63 yen, and 69.40 euro cents, up from 69.26 euro cents.
Euro Rises With FTSE Futures on ECB as China Stocks Slide
European equity-index futures climbed with the euro as the region’s central bank said most lenders passed stress tests. Chinese stocks retreated amid delays to a link between Hong Kong and Shanghai, while Brent crude fell.
Contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index added 1 percent as of 7:09 a.m. in London, while the euro strengthened 0.2 percent. The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8 percent as Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. plunged after its chief executive officer said he doesn’t know when mutual access with Shanghai will begin. An exchange-traded fund of Brazilian shares plunged 6.8 percent in Tokyo after President Dilma Rousseff won re-election. Wheat and soybean futures fell and oil in London slid 0.3 percent.
European bank shares and bonds may rally after the ECB found that none of the region’s largest banks lacked the ability to withstand times of economic stress. Charles Li, the chief executive officer of the Hong Kong bourse operator said yesterday he has no idea when authorities will give the green light for cross-border trading. Rousseff’s victory over an opponent viewed as more friendly to investors stretches her Workers’ Party’s rule to a record 16 years.
While Opposition Leader Bill Shorten addressed the Australian Christian Lobby (ACL) on the topic of marriage equality, Immigration Minister Scott Morrison threw his support behind Australia’s existing legal arrangements.
Shorten confronted the ACL national conference with regards to the vindication and condemnation of marriage equality on the basis of religion.
“When I see people hiding behind the bible to insult and demonise people on the basis of who they love, I cannot stay silent, I do not agree,” Shorten said in his speech.
“When I hear that people allege that God tells them that marriage equality is the first step to polygamy and bigamy and bestiality, I cannot stay silent, I simply do not agree.”
Shorten said these prejudices did not reflect his own Christian values and criticised Australia’s existing marriage laws.
“Whatever our views about marriage, and whatever our social views about how best to raise and educate children, I do believe that we currently have a law which discriminates against adult couples on the basis of who they love,” he said.
Mergers and acquisitions to pick up as economy improves: report
A new survey suggests corporate takeover activity will increase markedly as big businesses start to feel more confident about the Australian economy.
The survey from accounting and advisory group EY canvassed 1,600 senior executives across 54 countries, including Australia, and found 66 per cent want to make acquisitions in the next year compared with just 32 per cent six months ago.
EY’s Oceania transaction leader Graeme Browning said companies are now more willing to spend the cash they have been hoarding.
« For M and A [merger and acquisition] the important thing is it’s stable and predictable, so people are not concerned about major changes in the Australian economy, they’re positive about employment growth too over the long term, » he said.
« These are all essential ingredients for companies to have confidence to invest over this three-to-five-year period. »
The survey also suggests big corporations are now becoming more willing to take on debt to fund takeovers.
Medical breakthrough: Australian doctors transplant ‘dead’ hearts
Australian surgeons on Friday said they have used hearts which had stopped beating in successful transplants, in what they said was a world first that could change the way organs are donated.
Until now, doctors have relied on using the still-beating hearts of donors who have been declared brain dead, often placing the recovered organs on ice and rushing them to their recipients.
But Sydney’s St Vincent’s Hospital and the Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute have developed a technique which means hearts which had been still for 20 minutes can be resuscitated, kept beating and transplanted into a patient.
Japan News
Japan: Although two cabinet ministers resign over scandals, creating more questions about Abenomics, we do not see this derailing PM Abe objectives. Recent decision to crack down on tax dodgers is another piece of evidence that Japan is heading toward reforms and improving governance. Furthermore, as Japan trade deficit deteriorate (cf. our comments on this in Economics news) increase the pressure to reform.
Japan warned on Friday that a volcano in southern Japan located roughly 64 km (40 miles) from a nuclear plant was showing signs of increased activity that could possibly lead to a small-scale eruption and warned people to stay away from the summit. This signs are increasing the pressure on the PM Abe administration to consider all routes which could help bring down Japan energy trade deficit without counting too much on reopening of the nuclear plants. These measures include Trade Partnership which could secure Japan energy, but at the other hand Japan has to agree to changes in behaviour requested by the Green party in Australia which would be instrumental to clear the TPP. We consider that accepting a much tough regulation on Whales hinting or presenting apology for “confort women” is an acceptable price to pay to secure the Japanese economy from sovereign solvency risk.
North Korea decision to free Jeffrey Fowle, a US Citizen, is a positive indication that the relations with NK are improving in what we see as first genuine steps toward a reunification solution which would involve China, South Korea and Japan. We see the next China – Japan summit (discussed by FinMin Aso in Finance APEC Summit) as instrumental for reducing the tension between the two countries and to move ahead with reunification talks.
Brazil’s $101 Billion Derivatives Position Looms Before Election
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) — Fourteen months after Brazil began selling billions of dollars worth of derivative contracts to shore up its currency, the strategy is proving ineffective and raising concern in financial markets.
The real fell to a six-year low yesterday and is the world’s most volatile currency. Some analysts say the swaps, which are equivalent to selling dollars in the futures market and now amount to 27 percent of foreign reserves, are approaching critical levels. The opposition’s presidential candidate has indicated he’d discontinue their use.
“The swaps program has reached its limit and it needs urgent review since it is losing efficiency and credibility,” said Tony Volpon, the managing director and head of emerging markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s largest brokerage.
The real has lost 11 percent versus the dollar since the end of August, the second-worst performer among 31 major currencies after the ruble, even as the central bank boosted the sales to $101 billion. Volatility in the currency is at the highest level in three years, a setback for policy makers who started the program in a bid to quell market swings that they said undermine the economy.
Declines in the real will probably accelerate in the short term should President Dilma Rousseff win re-election in this weekend’s runoff vote, prompting the central bank to increase the use of swaps, according to Evandro Buccini, an economist at Rio Bravo Investimentos SA, an asset manager that oversees 10 billion reais ($4 billion) of assets.
The world is on the brink of enlisting market forces in the fight against climate change on a truly global scale for the first time, United Nations officials have claimed.
After years of opposition, hundreds of the world’s major companies and investment firms – including several oil giants – have agreed that there should be a charge for the damage done to the planet by greenhouse gases.
This means that an international carbon market – in which companies buy and sell the right to produce harmful emissions – is now close to becoming a reality.
Even China, the world’s biggest polluter, plans to set up a carbon pricing system next year.
It is hoped that market forces will inevitably drive down the level of greenhouse gases as money flows from companies that produce emissions to those that reduce them, such as renewable energy firms.
Georg Kell, executive director of UN Global Compact, the body’s initiative to get firms to adopt sustainable policies, said the recent conversion of much of the business world was hugely significant.
U.S. ‘supports’ Japan’s efforts to resolve North Korea abduction issue
WASHINGTON – A U.S. official said Wednesday that Washington supports Japan’s efforts to resolve the so-called abduction issue with North Korea, after Tokyo announced it will send a delegation to Pyongyang for talks.
State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said the United States “certainly supports” the central government’s efforts to find out what happened to Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s, some of whom may still be alive and living there.
Harf added that the U.S. backs the Japanese government’s efforts to “resolve this issue in a manner that takes into account the interests of the abductees’ family and the security interests of Japan” as well as “its diplomatic partners in the international community.”
The remark was seen as urging Japan to keep in close contact with nations such as the United States and South Korea.
Arctic Ice Melt Seen Doubling Risk of Harsh Winter in EU
The decline in Arctic sea ice has doubled the chance of severe winters in Europe and Asia in the past decade, according to researchers in Japan.
Sea-ice melt in the Arctic, Barents and Kara seas since 2004 has made more than twice as likely atmospheric circulations that suck cold Arctic air to Europe and Asia, a group of Japanese researchers led by the University of Tokyo’s Masato Mori said in a study published yesterday in Nature Geoscience.
“This counterintuitive effect of the global warming that led to the sea ice decline in the first place makes some people think that global warming has stopped. It has not,” Colin Summerhayes, emeritus associate of the Scott Polar Research Institute, said in a statement provided by the journal Nature Geoscience, where the study is published.
Japan warns of increased activity at volcano near nuclear plant
(Reuters) – Japan warned on Friday that a volcano in southern Japan located roughly 64 km (40 miles) from a nuclear plant was showing signs of increased activity that could possibly lead to a small-scale eruption and warned people to stay away from the summit.
The warning comes nearly a month after another volcano, Mt Ontake, erupted suddenly when crowded with hikers, killing 57 people in Japan’s worst volcanic disaster in nearly 90 years.
Ioyama, a mountain on the southwestern island of Kyushu, has been shaken by small tremors and other signs of rising volcanic activity recently, including a tremor lasting as long as seven minutes, an official at the Japan Meteorological Agency’s volcano division said.
« There is an increase in activity that under certain circumstances could even lead to a small scale eruption, but it is not in danger of an imminent, major eruption, » the official said.
The warning level on the mountain has been raised from the lowest possible level, normal, to the second lowest, which means that the area around the crater is dangerous, he added.
About this report
The report and analysis have been prepared using Quid a big data solution. This report focuses on the most important issues out of 10,000 articles produced by top contributors amongst 35,000 sources during the last 24hours (or from Friday 3am LDN to Monday 3am for Monday’s reports).
***
Disclaimer
Copyright 2014 SNBDL Ltd (“SNBDL”). All rights reserved.
This report may provide information, commentary and discussion of issues relating to the state of the economy and the capital markets. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. SNBDL is under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore assume that SNBDL will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained in this report.
The content of this report is provided for discussion purposes only. Any forward looking statements or forecasts included in the content are based on assumptions derived from historical results and trends. Actual results may vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision, and no investment decisions should be made based on the content of this report.
This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person. Under no circumstances does any information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other asset, or otherwise constitute investment advice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in specific securities or financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
This report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment and readers are encouraged to seek independent, third-party research on any companies discussed or impacted by this report.
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report are not insured and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counter-party default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk.
Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional.
Individuals identified as economists in this report do not function as research analysts. Under U.S. law, reports prepared by them are not research reports under applicable U.S. rules and regulations.
In accordance with rules established by the U.K. Financial Services Authority, macroeconomic analysis is considered investment research.
Materials prepared by SNBDL research personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of SNBDL.
To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this report. SNBDL research personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any SNBDL entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co—defendants or co—plaintiffs with or involving companies mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of SNBDL in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings.
The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to SNBDL and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and SNBDL does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third—party websites. SNBDL is not responsible for the content of any third—party website or any linked content contained in a third—party website. Content contained on such third—party websites is not part of this report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with SNBDL.
Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited.
TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE
YOU AGREE YOU ARE USING THIS REPORT AND THE SNBDL SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. NEITHER SNBDL NOR ANY DIRECTOR, OFFICER, EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF SNBDL ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, MORAL, INCIDENTAL, COLLATERAL OR SPECIAL DAMAGES OR LOSSES OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSE DAMAGES ARISING FROM ANY DECISION MADE OR ACTION TAKEN BY YOU IN RELIANCE ON THE CONTENT OF THIS REPORT, OR THOSE DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOSS OF USE, DATA OR PROFITS, WHETHER FROM THE USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE ANY CONTENT OR SOFTWARE OBTAINED FROM THIRD PARTIES REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ACCESS TO THE CONTENT, OR ANY OTHER CAUSE, EVEN IF SNBDL IS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES OR LOSSES AND EVEN IF CAUSED BY ANY ACT, OMISSION OR NEGLIGENCE OF SNBDL OR ITS DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES OR AGENTS AND EVEN IF ANY OF THEM HAS BEEN APPRISED OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUCH DAMAGES OCCURRING.
If you have received this report in error, or no longer wish to receive this report, you may ask to have your contact information removed from our distribution list by emailing driss.lamrani@snbdl.com